ArticleEpidemiology and infection2016
Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Pooled it
- A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Review
- Projecting temperature-related dengue burden in the Philippines under various socioeconomic pathway scenarios.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Modeling present and future climate risk of dengue outbreak, a case study in New Caledonia.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2022Article
- Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Dengue vaccine-induced CD8+ T cell immunity confers protection in the context of enhancing, interfering maternal antibodies.JCI insight · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.