Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27436868›Full record

ReviewEuropean heart journal2017

Moving beyond regression techniques in cardiovascular risk prediction: applying machine learning to address analytic challenges.

Benjamin A Goldstein, Ann Marie Navar, Rickey E Carter

Registry-linked trialAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in European heart journal, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06993415 (Optimize Risk Prediction After Myocardial Infarction Through Artificial Intelligence and Multidimensional Evaluation), which is not on this map. Cited by 273 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
273citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06993415 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Optimize Risk Prediction After Myocardial Infarction Through Artificial Intelligence and Multidimensional Evaluation: The ORACLE Study

TypeobservationalSponsorFundación Pública Andaluza para la Investigación de Málaga en Biomedicina y SaludRan2025 to 2028Enrolled750ConditionsMyocardial Infarction (MI)Armsdata collection
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

273 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  12. Performance of Statistical and Machine Learning Risk Prediction Models for Advanced Breast Cancer.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
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213 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Benjamin A GoldsteinDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, 2424 Erwin Road, Suite 1104, Durham, NC 27705, USA.
Ann Marie NavarCenter for Predictive Medicine, Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, USA.
Rickey E CarterDepartment of Health Sciences Research, Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.

Funding

Understanding and predicting cardiac events in HD using real-time EHRsK25DK097279 · NIDDK · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI GOLDSTEIN, BENJAMIN ALAN · 2013 to 2017
$797k
NIDDK NIH HHS K25 DK097279
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Risk prediction plays an important role in clinical cardiology research. Traditionally, most risk models have been based on regression models. While useful and robust, these statistical methods are limited to using a small number of predictors which operate in the same way on everyone, and uniformly throughout their range. The purpose of this review is to illustrate the use of machine-learning methods for development of risk prediction models. Typically presented as black box approaches, most machine-learning methods are aimed at solving particular challenges that arise in data analysis that are not well addressed by typical regression approaches. To illustrate these challenges, as well as how different methods can address them, we consider trying to predicting mortality after diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. We use data derived from our institution's electronic health record and abstract data on 13 regularly measured laboratory markers. We walk through different challenges that arise in modelling these data and then introduce different machine-learning approaches. Finally, we discuss general issues in the application of machine-learning methods including tuning parameters, loss functions, variable importance, and missing data. Overall, this review serves as an introduction for those working on risk modelling to approach the diffuse field of machine learning.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesHumansMachine LearningModels, BiologicalPrecision MedicineRegression AnalysisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsElectronic health recordsPersonalized medicinePrecision medicineRisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID27436868
PMCPMC5837244

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.