The effect of herd formation among healthcare investors on health sector growth in China.

backgroundChina has become the world's second largest healthcare market based on a recent report by the World Health Organization. Eventhough China achieved universal health insurance coverage in 2011, representing the largest expansion of insurance coverage in human history achieved; health inequality remains endemic in China. Lessons from the effect of market crisis on health equity in Europe and other places has reignited interest in exploring the potential healthcare market aberrations that can trigger distributive injustice in healthcare resource allocation among China's provinces. Recently, many healthcare investors in China have become more concerned about capital preservation, and are responding by abandoning long term investments strategies in healthcare. This investment withdrawal en mass is perceived to be influenced by herding tendencies and can trigger or consolidate endemic health inequality.

methodsOur study simultaneously employs four testing models (two state spaced models and two return dispersion models) to establish the existence of procyclical (herding) behavior among the stocks and its health equity implications. These are applied to a large set of data to compare and contrast results of herd formation among investors in fourteen healthcare sectors in China.

resultsThe study reveals that apart from the cross sectional standard deviation (CSSD) model, the remaining two models and our augmented state space model yields significant evidence of herding in all subsectors of the healthcare market. We also find that the herding effect is more prominent during down movements of the market.

conclusionHerding behavior may lead to contemporaneous loss of investor confidence and capital withdrawal and thereby deprive the healthcare sector of the much needed capital for expansion. Thus there may be obvious delay in efforts to bridge the gap in access to healthcare facilities, medical support services, medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, diagnostic substances, medical laboratory and advanced medical equipment across China. Moreover, a potential crash in the healthcare market is possible in the healthcare sector as a result of persistent herding tendencies among investors and that may have more damaging consequences for health inequality in China.