ArticleBMJ open2016
Determinants of regular smoking onset in South Africa using duration analysis.
Article in BMJ open, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Changes in tobacco use in rural South Africa during the 2020 tobacco sales ban: an analysis of current and previous behaviours using cross-sectional data.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- What drives youth smoking initiation in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Evidence from a split-population duration model.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Initiation, cessation and relapse of tobacco smoking over a 3-year period among participants aged ≥15 years in a large longitudinal cohort in rural South Africa.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on subarachnoid hemorrhage burden across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Cigarette Prices and Smoking Experimentation Among Zimbabwean Children: A Survival Analysis of the 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2024Article
- Parental health risk preferences, socio-economic status and offspring's alcohol behavior in South Africa.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Impact of cigarette price and tobacco control policies on youth smoking experimentation in Albania.Tobacco control · 2024Article
- Taxation of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages: reviewing the evidence and dispelling the myths.BMJ global health · 2023Review
- Effect of cigarette prices on cigarette consumption in Ghana.Drug and alcohol dependence reports · 2022Article
- Article
- Indoor Household Exposures and Associated Morbidity and Mortality Outcomes in Children and Adults in South Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- Cigarette Prices and Smoking Among Youth in 16 African Countries: Evidence From the Global Youth Tobacco Survey.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2022Article
- Effect of relative income price on smoking initiation among adolescents in Ghana: evidence from pseudo-longitudinal data.BMJ open · 2022Article
- The influence of smoking and HIV infection on pulmonary function.Southern African journal of HIV medicine · 2022Article
- Cigarette Prices and Smoking Experimentation in Sierra Leone: An Exploratory Study.Tobacco use insights · 2022Article
- The effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on the prevalence of smoking in Africa.Global health research and policy · 2021Article
- Age at the onset of tobacco smoking in South Africa: a discrete-time survival analysis of the prognostic factors.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2020Article
- Determinants of smoking intensity in South Africa: Evidence from township communities.Preventive medicine reports · 2020Article
- Effects of Prices on Youth Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Initiation in Ghana and Nigeria.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesSouth Africa has achieved significant success with its tobacco control policy. Between 1994 and 2012, the real price of cigarettes increased by 229%, while regular smoking prevalence decreased from about 31% to 18.2%.
methodsCigarette prices and socioeconomic variables are used to examine the determinants of regular smoking onset. We apply duration analysis techniques to the National Income Dynamics Study, a nationally representative survey of South Africa.
resultsWe find that an increase in cigarette prices significantly reduces regular smoking initiation among males, but not among females. Regular smoking among parents is positively correlated with smoking initiation among children. Children with more educated parents are less likely to initiate regular smoking than those with less educated parents. Africans initiate later and at lower rates than other race groups.
conclusionsAs the tobacco epidemic is shifting towards low-income and middle-income countries, there is an increasing urgency to perform studies in these countries to influence policy. Higher cigarette excise taxes, which lead to higher retail prices, reduce smoking prevalence by encouraging smokers to quit and by discouraging young people from starting smoking.
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