Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27426413›Full record

ArticleStatistics in medicine2017

Net reclassification index at event rate: properties and relationships.

Michael J Pencina, Ewout W Steyerberg, Ralph B D'Agostino

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Article in Statistics in medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 57 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
57citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

57 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Michael J PencinaDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, 27710, U.S.A.
Ewout W SteyerbergDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, 3000 CA, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7787-0122
Ralph B D'AgostinoDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, U.S.A.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an attractively simple summary measure quantifying improvement in performance because of addition of new risk marker(s) to a prediction model. Originally proposed for settings with well-established classification thresholds, it quickly extended into applications with no thresholds in common use. Here we aim to explore properties of the NRI at event rate. We express this NRI as a difference in performance measures for the new versus old model and show that the quantity underlying this difference is related to several global as well as decision analytic measures of model performance. It maximizes the relative utility (standardized net benefit) across all classification thresholds and can be viewed as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the distributions of risk among events and non-events. It can be expressed as a special case of the continuous NRI, measuring reclassification from the 'null' model with no predictors. It is also a criterion based on the value of information and quantifies the reduction in expected regret for a given regret function, casting the NRI at event rate as a measure of incremental reduction in expected regret. More generally, we find it informative to present plots of standardized net benefit/relative utility for the new versus old model across the domain of classification thresholds. Then, these plots can be summarized with their maximum values, and the increment in model performance can be described by the NRI at event rate. We provide theoretical examples and a clinical application on the evaluation of prognostic biomarkers for atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Indexed as

Area Under CurveAtrial FibrillationClassificationCohort StudiesHumansLogistic ModelsPrognosisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsROC Curvedecision analysisnet benefitreclassificationregretutility

Identifiers

PMID27426413

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.