ArticleMedical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran2016
Estimation of the prevalence of chronic kidney disease: The results of a model based estimation in Kerman, Iran.
Article in Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- The national trend of the burden of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in Iran from 1990 to 2019.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2023Article
- Fasting Ramadan in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), Kidney Transplant and Dialysis Patients: Review and Update.Cureus · 2022Review
- MicroRNA Expression Changes in Kidney Transplant: Diagnostic Efficacy of miR-150-5p as Potential Rejection Biomarker, Pilot Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2021Article
- A prospective study on total protein, plant protein and animal protein in relation to the risk of incident chronic kidney disease.BMC nephrology · 2020Article
- Comparison of Penalized Cox Regression Methods in Low-Dimensional Data with Few-Events: An Application to Dialysis Patients' Data.Journal of research in health sciences · 2019Article
- Fasting during Ramadan in people with chronic kidney disease: a review of the literature.Therapeutic advances in endocrinology and metabolism · 2019Review
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8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundChronic kidney disease is asymptomatic until its last stages and though it is increasing globally, we are faced with paucity of a population-based model to assess this disease, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and trends of CKD according to a new estimation method.
methodsUsing multiplier method, we estimated the numbers of different stages of CKD based on the number of patients with end stage renal failure from 2006 to 2016. The required multipliers were extracted from a simulation of the disease in Kerman following a dynamic model. The 95% uncertainty interval was computed using Monte-Carlo technique with 10,000 iterations.
resultsThe prevalence of CKDA (GFR<=90mL/min/1.73m2) and CKDB (GFR less than 60mL/min/1.73m2) patients were estimated to be 7.6% (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 5.7-9.1%) and 1.1% (95% UI, 0.8-1.3%), respectively in 2011. The method revealed that the prevalence may rise up to 25.7% (95% UI, 18.2-32.5%) and 3.7% (95% UI, 2.7-4.5%) for CKDA and CKDB, respectively in 2016, indicating approximately 3.3 times increase for both figures.
conclusionThis study predicted an increase in the prevalence of CKD in the future. This may be due to the increasing life expectancy of the population, the increase in the prevalence of non- communicable diseases such as hypertension and diabetes, or patients' survival due to receiving better support. Therefore, the policymakers should be concerned and well informed about this increase.
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