ArticleBMJ open2016
Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework.Tobacco control · 2023Pooled it
- The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2025Article
- Stroke burden in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2021: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study.BMC neurology · 2025Article
- Evaluation of Blood Pressure Status and Mortality in Turkey: Findings from Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Cohort Study.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2023Article
- The landscape of preventive cardiology in Turkey: Challenges and successes.American journal of preventive cardiology · 2021Review
- Substituting polyunsaturated fat for saturated fat: A health impact assessment of a fat tax in seven European countries.PloS one · 2019Article
- Dietary Sources of High Sodium Intake in Turkey: SALTURK II.Nutrients · 2017Article
- Sodium and Potassium Intake in Healthy Adults in Thessaloniki Greater Metropolitan Area-The Salt Intake in Northern Greece (SING) Study.Nutrients · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThis study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025.
designA CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025.
settingUsing risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties. SUBJECT: Projected populations in 2025 (aged 25-84) of 54 million in Turkey.
resultsAssuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ∼25 635 (range: 20 290-31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780-55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence.
conclusionsOnly modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey.
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