Density-dependent effects of larval dispersal mediated by host plant quality on populations of an invasive insect.

The success of invasive species is often thought to be due to release from natural enemies. This hypothesis assumes that species are regulated by top-down forces in their native range and are likely to be regulated by bottom-up forces in the invasive range. Neither of these assumptions has been consistently supported with insects, a group which includes many destructive invasive species. Winter moth (Operophtera brumata) is an invasive defoliator in North America that appears to be regulated by larval mortality. To assess whether regulation was caused by top-down or bottom-up forces, we sought to identify the main causes of larval mortality. We used observational and manipulative field and laboratory studies to demonstrate that larval mortality due to predation, parasitism, and disease were minimal. We measured the response of larval dispersal in the field to multiple aspects of foliar quality, including total phenolics, pH 10 oxidized phenolics, trichome density, total nitrogen, total carbon, and carbon-nitrogen ratio. Tree-level declines in density were driven by density-dependent dispersal of early instars. Late instar larvae dispersed at increased rates from previously damaged as compared to undamaged foliage, and in 2015 field larval dispersal rates were related to proportion of oxidative phenolics. We conclude that larval dispersal is the dominant source of density-dependent larval mortality, may be mediated by induced changes in foliar quality, and likely regulates population densities in New England. These findings suggest that winter moth population densities in New England are regulated by bottom-up forces, aligning with the natural enemy release hypothesis.