ArticleScientific reports2016
Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change.
Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Avian cholera causes mass mortality at penguin mega-colonies amid H5N1 HPAI outbreaks in Antarctica.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2026Article
- A dataset on worldwide penguin diet.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Terrestrial Spatial Distribution and Summer Abundance of Antarctic Fur Seals (Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Genomic Introgression and Adaptation of Southern Seabird Species Facilitate Recent Polar Colonization.Molecular biology and evolution · 2025Article
- Article
- Adélie penguins north and east of the 'Adélie gap' continue to thrive in the face of dramatic declines elsewhere in the Antarctic Peninsula region.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Islands in the ice: Potential impacts of habitat transformation on Antarctic biodiversity.Global change biology · 2022Article
- Climate drives long-term change in Antarctic Silverfish along the western Antarctic Peninsula.Communications biology · 2022Article
- The influence of subcolony-scale nesting habitat on the reproductive success of Adélie penguins.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Genome-wide analyses reveal drivers of penguin diversification.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- Article
- Density dependence forces divergent population growth rates and alters occupancy patterns of a central place foraging Antarctic seabird.Ecology and evolution · 2020Article
- Applying science to pressing conservation needs for penguins.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2020Article
- Comparing feedback and spatial approaches to advance ecosystem-based fisheries management in a changing Antarctic.PloS one · 2020Article
- Blood transcriptome resources of chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarcticus) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) penguins from the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica.Genomics & informatics · 2019Article
- Spatial niche partitioning may promote coexistence ofEcology and evolution · 2018Article
- Multi-modal survey of Adélie penguin mega-colonies reveals the Danger Islands as a seabird hotspot.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.PloS one · 2018Article
- Aerial photography based census of Adélie Penguin and its application in CHScientific reports · 2017Article
- Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.Nature communications · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species' geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century.
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