ArticleOncotarget2016
Expected long-term impact of screening endoscopy on colorectal cancer incidence: a modelling study.
Article in Oncotarget, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- Simulation modeling validity and utility in colorectal cancer screening delivery: A systematic review.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2020Pooled it
- Risk-adapted intervals for colorectal cancer screening using fecal immunochemical tests: a modelling study based on the BLITZ cohort.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Colonoscopy Versus Fecal Occult Blood Test Versus No Screening: A Comparative Analysis of Long-Term Effects.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2026Observational
- Potential for enhancing efficacy of screening colonoscopy by lowering starting ages and extending screening intervals: A modelling study for Germany.International journal of cancer · 2025Article
- Effects of Alternative Offers of Screening Sigmoidoscopy and Colonoscopy on Utilization and Yield of Endoscopic Screening for Colorectal Neoplasms: Protocol of the DARIO Randomized Trial.JMIR research protocols · 2020Article
- Age-specific sequence of colorectal cancer screening options in Germany: A model-based critical evaluation.PLoS medicine · 2020Article
- Impact of Inadequate Bowel Cleansing on Colonoscopic Findings in Routine Screening Practice.Clinical and translational gastroenterology · 2020Article
- Colorectal cancer prevention by a CLEAR principles-based colonoscopy protocol: an observational study.Gastrointestinal endoscopy · 2020Observational
- Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis of a urine metabolomics test vs. alternative colorectal cancer screening strategies.International journal of colorectal disease · 2019Article
- Upregulated HOXA9 expression is associated with lymph node metastasis in colorectal cancer.Oncology letters · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
aimsScreening endoscopy reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence but the time course and magnitude of effects beyond 10 years after screening are unknown. We aimed to estimate the expected time course and magnitude of long-term impact of screening endoscopy on CRC incidence.
methodsWe used Markov models based on the natural history of the disease along with data from the German national screening colonoscopy registry to derive the expected impact of screening colonoscopy at age 55 or 60 on cumulative CRC incidence according to time of follow-up over a period of up to 25 years.
resultsAfter a single screening colonoscopy, cumulative CRC incidence is expected to be increased for approximately 4 to 5 years. This transient increase is expected to be followed by a steadily increasing reduction in cumulative CRC incidence for at least 25 years. Less than one third of this long-term reduction is expected to be seen within 10-12 years of follow-up, the length of follow-up reported on in RCTs on flexible sigmoidoscopy screening and in most cohort studies on both sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy screening. In relative terms, risk reduction is expected to reach its maximum approximately 15 years after a single screening colonoscopy and 20-25 years after the initial screening colonoscopy in case of repeat screening colonoscopy after 10 years.
conclusionsThe long-term impact of screening endoscopy on CRC prevention is expected to be much stronger than suggested by currently available evidence from RCTs and cohort studies with limited length of follow-up.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.