ArticleScientific reports2016
Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change.
Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 76 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
76 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Association between temperature and malaria (1959-2019): a systematic review and meta-analysis.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Pooled it
- Randomized trials of housing interventions to prevent malaria and Aedes-transmitted diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2021Pooled it
- How climate change affects mosquito-borne infectious disease: The different trajectories of malaria and dengue.Science advances · 2026Review
- Article
- Warming temperatures reduce lifespan and vectorial capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes in Ghana.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Historical Overview of the Bionomics ofJournal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2026Review
- Thermal dynamics of vector breeding habitats and their impact on immature survivorship of Anopheles stephensi in Chennai, India.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Integrating causal inference and machine learning to quantify climate-malaria relationships: Evidence of temperature and rainfall thresholds from Colombian municipalities.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Reinventing malaria control: hierarchical intervention strategies for African settings based on the microbiota-barrier-innate immunity axis.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Review
- Field validation of multiple species distribution models shows variation in performance for predicting Aedes albopictus distributions at the invasion edge.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Spatial modeling of the population dynamics of Anopheles mosquitoes in Madagascar.International journal of health geographics · 2025Article
- Climate Change Favors African Malaria Vector Mosquitoes.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Malaria prevalence and its determinants across 19 sub-Saharan African countries: a spatial and geographically weighted regression analysis.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Spatial and temporal variation of malaria incidence in children under 10 years in a pyrethroid-resistant vector area in southern Benin.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Prevalence and epidemiological characteristics of asymptomatic malaria in Sucre, Venezuela: a 2022 cross-sectional study.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Mean daily temperatures predict the thermal limits of malaria transmission better than hourly rate summation.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Modelling the effects of diurnal temperature variation on malaria infection dynamics in mosquitoes.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Changing Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in two villages of northeastern Tanzania between 2003 and 2021 in relation to vectors, interventions and climatic factors.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Influence of Household Roof Types on the Development of Plasmodium vivax in Anopheles stephensi Mosquitoes.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
16 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51-89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings.
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