ArticleJournal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology2016
Baseline Prostate-Specific Antigen Levels in Midlife Predict Lethal Prostate Cancer.
Article in Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
64 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 107 citations in OpenAlex.
- Guideline of guidelines: a critical appraisal of the evidence for PSA retesting intervals.BJU international · 2025Pooled it
- Genome-wide association study of prostate-specific antigen levels in 392,522 men identifies new loci and improves prediction across ancestry groups.Nature genetics · 2025Pooled it
- Early Detection of Prostate Cancer: AUA/SUO Guideline Part I: Prostate Cancer Screening.The Journal of urology · 2023Guideline
- Trial
- Relationship Between Baseline Prostate-specific Antigen on Cancer Detection and Prostate Cancer Death: Long-term Follow-up from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.European urology · 2023Trial
- Risk of Prostate Cancer-related Death Following a Low PSA Level in the PLCO Trial.Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2020Trial
- Trial
- A randomized trial of early detection of clinically significant prostate cancer (ProScreen): study design and rationale.European journal of epidemiology · 2017Trial
- The Prognostic Value of Baseline PSA Density on Long-term Oncological Outcomes in Men with an Initial Negative Prostate Biopsy: Results from ERSPC Rotterdam.European urology open science · 2026Article
- Cross-population metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization study of prostate cancer risk.Research square · 2026Article
- Beyond the Usual Suspects: Emerging Associations Between Epstein-Barr Virus Infection/Infectious Mononucleosis and Cancers.Reviews in medical virology · 2026Review
- Prostate-specific antigen levels at age 60 years and lifetime risk of lethal prostate cancer.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- Prostate specific antigen retesting intervals and trends in England: population based cohort study.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2025Article
- The natural history of prostate cancer.Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada · 2025Review
- Association of prostate-specific antigen density with prostate cancer mortality after a benign systematic prostate biopsy result.BJU international · 2025Article
- Prostate Cancer Mortality in Men Aged 70 Years Who Recently Underwent Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- The Role of Baseline Prostate-specific Antigen Value Prior to Age 60 in Predicting Lethal Prostate Cancer: Analysis of a Contemporary North American Cohort.European urology oncology · 2024Article
- Multidimensional Healthcare Access Barriers to Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing: A Nation-Wide Panel Study in the United States From 2006 to 2020.Cancer medicine · 2024Article
- Access to Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing and Mortality Among Men With Prostate Cancer.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Modifying and personalizing prostate cancer screening.Translational andrology and urology · 2024Article
4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
13 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
purposeProstate-specific antigen (PSA) level in midlife predicted future prostate cancer (PCa) mortality in an unscreened Swedish population. Our purpose was to determine if a baseline PSA level during midlife predicts lethal PCa in a US population with opportunistic screening. MATERIALS AND
methodsWe conducted a nested case-control study among men age 40 to 59 years who gave blood before random assignment in the Physicians' Health Study, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of aspirin and β-carotene among 22,071 US male physicians initiated in 1982 and then transitioned into a prospective cohort with 30 years of follow-up. Baseline PSA levels were available for 234 patients with PCa and 711 age-matched controls. Seventy-one participants who developed lethal PCa were rematched to 213 controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, with 95% CIs, of the association between baseline PSA and risk of lethal PCa.
resultsMedian PSA among controls was 0.68, 0.88, and 0.96 ng/mL for men age 40 to 49, 50 to 54, and 55 to 59 years, respectively. Risk of lethal PCa was strongly associated with baseline PSA in midlife: odds ratios (95% CIs) comparing PSA in the > 90th percentile versus less than or equal to median were 8.7 (1.0 to 78.2) at 40 to 49 years, 12.6 (1.4 to 110.4) at 50 to 54 years, and 6.9 (2.5 to 19.1) at 55 to 59 years. A total of 82%, 71%, and 86% of lethal cases occurred in men with PSA above the median at ages 40 to 49, 50 to 54, and 55 to 59 years, respectively.
conclusionPSA levels in midlife strongly predict future lethal PCa in a US cohort subject to opportunistic screening. Risk-stratified screening on the basis of midlife PSA should be considered in men age 45 to 59 years.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.