ArticleBMC nephrology2016
Forecast of the incidence, prevalence and burden of end-stage renal disease in Nanjing, China to the Year 2025.
Article in BMC nephrology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Acute kidney injury increases the risk of end-stage renal disease after cardiac surgery in an Asian population: a prospective cohort study.BMC nephrology · 2017Trial
- Selection and Validation of Novel Biomarkers for ntOPN-Based Models for Diabetic Kidney Disease in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus.Journal of diabetes research · 2026Article
- Effects of low-flux and high-flux hemodialysis on the survival of elderly maintenance hemodialysis patients.Renal failure · 2024Article
- Hyperkalaemia prevalence and dialysis patterns in Chinese patients on haemodialysis: an interim analysis of a prospective cohort study (PRECEDE-K).BMC nephrology · 2023Observational
- Prediction models for risk of diabetic kidney disease in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.Renal failure · 2022Article
- The Role of Physical Activity and Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients: A Review.Frontiers in public health · 2022Review
- Physical performance and health-related quality of life among older adults on peritoneal dialysis: a cross-sectional study.International urology and nephrology · 2021Article
- Paricalcitol versus Calcitriol + Cinacalcet for the Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism in Chronic Kidney Disease in China: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Comparative Performance of Body Composition Parameters in Prediction of Death in Hospitalized Patients on Maintenance Hemodialysis: A Cohort Study.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Article
- Direct medical costs of end-stage kidney disease and renal replacement therapy: a cohort study in Guangzhou City, southern China.BMC health services research · 2020Observational
- Incidence Rates of Four Major Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in the Chinese Adult Population from 2007 to 2016: A Study Based on a National Commercial Claims Database.Clinical epidemiology · 2020Article
- Observational
- A Telemedicine-Based Registration System for the Management of Renal Anemia in Patients on Maintenance Hemodialysis: Multicenter Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2019Article
- Chinese health care system and clinical epidemiology.Clinical epidemiology · 2017Review
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThere are limited data on the trends of incidence or prevalence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) in China. To assist in future planning for the ESRD program, the trends of incidence, prevalence and health care costs were analyzed and forecasted to the year 2025 by modeling of historical data from 2004 through 2014.
methodsNanjing urban employee basic medical insurance (NJUEBMI) data were obtained from the Nanjing Medical Insurance Information System from 2004 to 2014. The time series forecasting system in SAS 9.4 was used. Each variable was independently forecasted by the fittest model, which was selected automatically or manually.
resultsThe forecasting models demonstrated mean percent errors of -2.49 to 5.62 %, relative to the observed values. The R-square values for the forecasting models ranged from 0.756 to 0.997. On the basis of trends in the historical data, the models projected that the average annual increase in the NJUEBMI population was 4.77 %, with forecasted values of 5,029,270 in 2025 (95 % CI, 4,960,423-5,098,117). The incidence and prevalence of ESRD were projected to increase by 1.19 and 1.95 % annually and were expected to reach 250.5 pmp (95 % CI, 247.7-253.3) and 1505 pmp(95 % CI, 1450-1560) by 2025. Additionally, the costs associated with ESRD were forecasted to increase at a growth rate of 5.80 % for healthcare costs and 7.25‰ for per capita medical expenses, with forecasted values of ¥600.3 million ($92.4 million) (95 % CI, 541.8-658.9) and ¥99.0 thousand ($15.2 thousand) (95 % CI, 98.6-99.3), respectively, by 2025. The incidence and prevalence of kidney transplantation were projected to decrease by 6.58 and 9.79 % annually.
conclusionsThese projections suggest that the incidence, prevalence, healthcare costs, and per capita medical expenses of ESRD would increase in the NJUEBMI population. They provide a basis for discussing the trends of ESRD in China and facing the challenges from the ESRD program.
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