Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27294266›Full record

ArticleAIDS and behavior2017

An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study.

Dan Bai, Cheng-Shiun Leu, Joanne E Mantell, Theresa M Exner, Diane Cooper, Susie Hoffman, Elizabeth A Kelvin, Landon Myer, Debbie Constant, Jennifer Moodley

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS and behavior, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact, top 95% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

Dan BaiDepartment of Biostatistics, Joseph Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Cheng-Shiun LeuDepartment of Biostatistics, Joseph Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Joanne E MantellHIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA. jem57@cumc.columbia.edu.
Theresa M ExnerHIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA.
Diane CooperWomen's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.
Susie HoffmanHIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA.
Elizabeth A KelvinHIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Medical Center, 1051 Riverside Drive Unit 15, New York, NY, USA.
Landon MyerDivision of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.
Debbie ConstantWomen's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.
Jennifer MoodleyWomen's Health Research Unit, University of Cape Town School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Cape Town, South Africa.
Columbia University Irving Medical Center · USWestern Cape Department of Health · ZAChinese University of Hong Kong · HKCity University of New York · USUniversity of Cape Town · ZA

Funding

The Statistics, Data Science, and Data Management (SDM) CoreP30MH043520 · NIMH · NEW YORK STATE PSYCHIATRIC INSTITUTE DBA RESEARCH FOUNDATION FOR MENTAL HYGIENE, INC · PI Claude Ann Mellins · 2003 to 2026
$48.2M
A Structural Intervention To Integrate Reproductive Health Into HIV CareR01MH078770 · NIMH · NEW YORK STATE PSYCHIATRIC INSTITUTE DBA RESEARCH FOUNDATION FOR MENTAL HYGIENE, INC · PI MANTELL, JOANNE ELLEN · 2007 to 2011
$2.5M
NIMH NIH HHS P30 MH043520NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH078770
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.

Indexed as

IntentionReproductive BehaviorSexual BehaviorAdultArea Under CurveDecision Support TechniquesFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansMaleResearchROC CurveSouth AfricaArea under the curve (AUC) of the ROCChildbearingHIV infectionHIV-positive women and menk-fold cross-validationReceiving operating characteristic (ROC) curveReproductive intentionsSensitivitySouth AfricaSpecificity

Identifiers

PMID27294266
PMCPMC5154771
OpenAlexW2419938227

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.