ArticleTuberculosis research and treatment2016
Tuberculosis Case Finding in Benin, 2000-2014 and Beyond: A Retrospective Cohort and Time Series Study.
Article in Tuberculosis research and treatment, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Drivers of Seasonal Variation in Tuberculosis Incidence: Insights from a Systematic Review and Mathematical Model.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2018Pooled it
- Interventions to increase tuberculosis case detection at primary healthcare or community-level services.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2017Pooled it
- Application of ARIMA, and hybrid ARIMA Models in predicting and forecasting tuberculosis incidences among children in Homa Bay and Turkana Counties, Kenya.PLOS digital health · 2023Article
- Temporal trends analysis of tuberculosis morbidity in mainland China from 1997 to 2025 using a new SARIMA-NARNNX hybrid model.BMJ open · 2019Article
- Article
- Estimating the incidence of tuberculosis cases reported at a tertiary hospital in Ghana: a time series model approach.BMC public health · 2018Article
- Development and validation of a predictive ecological model for TB prevalence.International journal of epidemiology · 2018Article
- Factors affecting tuberculosis health message recall 2 years after active case finding in Blantyre, Malawi.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2018Article
- Forecasting the incidence of tuberculosis in China using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model.Journal of infection and public healthArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Objective. To determine any changes in tuberculosis epidemiology in the last 15 years in Benin, seasonal variations, and forecasted numbers of tuberculosis cases in the next five years. Materials and Methods. Retrospective cohort and time series study of all tuberculosis cases notified between 2000 and 2014. The "R" software version 3.2.1 (Institute for Statistics and Mathematics Vienna Austria) and the Box-Jenkins 1976 modeling approach were used for time series analysis. Results. Of 246943 presumptive cases, 54303 (22%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis. Annual notified case numbers increased, with the highest reported in 2011. New pulmonary bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis (NPBCT) represented 78% ± SD 2%. Retreatment cases decreased from 10% to 6% and new pulmonary clinically diagnosed cases increased from 2% to 8%. NPBCT notification rates decreased in males from 2012, in young people aged 15-34 years and in Borgou-Alibori region. There was a seasonal pattern in tuberculosis cases. Over 90% of NPBCT were HIV-tested with a stable HIV prevalence of 13%. The ARIMA best fit model predicted a decrease in tuberculosis cases finding in the next five years. Conclusion. Tuberculosis case notifications are predicted to decrease in the next five years if current passive case finding is used. Additional strategies are needed in the country.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.