Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27283160›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2017

Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial.

James Lopez Bernal, Steven Cummins, Antonio Gasparrini

Erratum issued 3 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. It is linked to 3 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 1,767 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1,767citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04603313 completednot on this mapstarted 2019, after this paper: background citation

Evaluation of Informal Opinions of the Infectious Disease Specialist Referent for the Good Use of AnTiBiotics in General Medicine

TypeobservationalSponsorUniversity Hospital, GrenobleRan2019 to 2022Enrolled4,138ConditionsCommunicable DiseasesArmstele-advice system
NCT04816318 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

Policy Responses Against the COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America: Interrupted Series Analyses of Local Governments

TypeobservationalSponsorUniversity of ChileRan2021 to 2021Enrolled10,000ConditionsCovid19, Infectious Disease, Death, SARS-CoV InfectionArmsSocial and public health measures against COVID-19, Control
NCT06926504 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

TeamBirth - an Intervention to Improve Patient Safety and Person-centered Care During Childbirth

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorKarolinska InstitutetRan2024 to 2029Enrolled800,000ConditionsPerson Centered Care, Patient Safety, Patient SatisfactionArmsThe care process S-TeamBirth, S-TeamBirth
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1,767 citing papers in PubMed.

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  17. Article
  18. The Impact of Hurricane Harvey on Home Health Care Delivery for Medicare Beneficiaries.Journal of applied gerontology : the official journal of the Southern Gerontological Society · 2026
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Trends in annual medication possession in older adults with type 2 diabetes.Journal of managed care & specialty pharmacy · 2026
    Article

1,707 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

James Lopez BernalDepartment of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Steven CumminsDepartment of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Antonio GasparriniDepartment of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/L011891/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis is a valuable study design for evaluating the effectiveness of population-level health interventions that have been implemented at a clearly defined point in time. It is increasingly being used to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions ranging from clinical therapy to national public health legislation. Whereas the design shares many properties of regression-based approaches in other epidemiological studies, there are a range of unique features of time series data that require additional methodological considerations. In this tutorial we use a worked example to demonstrate a robust approach to ITS analysis using segmented regression. We begin by describing the design and considering when ITS is an appropriate design choice. We then discuss the essential, yet often omitted, step of proposing the impact model a priori. Subsequently, we demonstrate the approach to statistical analysis including the main segmented regression model. Finally we describe the main methodological issues associated with ITS analysis: over-dispersion of time series data, autocorrelation, adjusting for seasonal trends and controlling for time-varying confounders, and we also outline some of the more complex design adaptations that can be used to strengthen the basic ITS design.

Indexed as

Interrupted Time Series AnalysisPublic HealthEpidemiologic StudiesHumansResearch Design

Identifiers

PMID27283160
PMCPMC5407170

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.