ArticleGlobal health action2016
Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis.
Article in Global health action, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 53 citations in OpenAlex.
- Acceptability, safety, and patterns of use of oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in South African adolescents: an open-label single-arm phase 2 trial.The Lancet. Child & adolescent health · 2020Trial
- Estimated HIV cases and costs in South Africa due to global warming from 2000 to 2050: a modeling study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Challenges and Opportunities in Big Data Science to Address Health Inequities and Focus the HIV Response.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2024Review
- Future HIV epidemic trajectories in South Africa and projected long-term consequences of reductions in general population HIV testing: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Public health · 2024Article
- Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national scale-up of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in South Africa: a modelling analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
- Uptake of HIV testing among aging adults in Agincourt, South Africa: perception of community, social network, and individual characteristics.African journal of AIDS research : AJAR · 2022Article
- Modelled epidemiological data for selected congenital disorders in South Africa.Journal of community genetics · 2021Article
- The impact of the program for medical male circumcision on HIV in South Africa: analysis using three epidemiological models.Gates open research · 2021Article
- Assessing attitudes to ED-based HIV testing: Development of a short-structured survey instrument.PloS one · 2021Article
- The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis.PLoS medicine · 2020Article
- Knowledge, attitudes and practices of young adults towards HIV prevention: an analysis of baseline data from a community-based HIV prevention intervention study in two high HIV burden districts, South Africa.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Mixed-method estimation of population-level HIV viral suppression rate in the Western Cape, South Africa.BMJ global health · 2020Article
- Enhancers and barriers to uptake of male circumcision services in Northern Uganda: a qualitative study.AIDS care · 2020Article
- Estimating a cost-effectiveness threshold for health care decision-making in South Africa.Health policy and planning · 2020Article
- Maternal and child health outcomes in rural South African mothers living with and without HIV.AIDS care · 2020Article
- Recording of HIV viral loads and viral suppression in South African patients receiving antiretroviral treatment: a multicentre cohort study.Antiviral therapy · 2020Article
- Patient acceptance of HIV testing services in rural emergency departments in South Africa.Southern African journal of HIV medicine · 2020Article
- HIV estimates through 2018: data for decision-making.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- The impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review of modelling contributions and way forward.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- Population-level Mortality Associated with HIV Exposure in HIV-uninfected Infants in Botswana and South Africa: A Model-based Evaluation.Journal of tropical pediatrics · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe goal of virtual elimination of horizontal and mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa (SA) has been proposed, but there have been few systematic investigations of which interventions are likely to be most critical to reducing HIV incidence.
objectiveThis study aims to evaluate SA's potential to achieve virtual elimination targets and to identify which interventions will be most critical to achieving HIV incidence reductions.
designA mathematical model was developed to simulate the population-level impact of different HIV interventions in SA. Probability distributions were specified to represent uncertainty around 32 epidemiological parameters that could be influenced by interventions, and correlation coefficients (r) were calculated to assess the sensitivity of the adult HIV incidence rates and mother-to-child transmission rates (2015-2035) to each epidemiological parameter.
resultsHIV incidence in SA adults (ages 15-49) is expected to decline from 1.4% in 2011-2012 to 0.29% by 2035 (95% CI: 0.10-0.62%). The parameters most strongly correlated with future adult HIV incidence are the rate of viral suppression after initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) (r=-0.56), the level of condom use in non-marital relationships (r=-0.40), the phase-in of intensified risk-reduction counselling for HIV-positive adults (r=0.29), the uptake of medical male circumcision (r=-0.24) and the phase-in of universal ART eligibility (r=0.22). The paediatric HIV parameters most strongly associated with mother-to-child transmission rates are the relative risk of transmission through breastfeeding when the mother is receiving ART (r=0.70) and the rate of ART initiation during pregnancy (r=-0.16).
conclusionsThe virtual elimination target of a 0.1% incidence rate in adults will be difficult to achieve. Interventions that address the infectiousness of patients after ART initiation will be particularly critical to achieving long-term HIV incidence declines in South Africa.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.