Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27280117›Full record

ArticleCMAJ open

Trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Canada during the era of prostate-specific antigen screening.

James Dickinson, Amanda Shane, Marcello Tonelli, Sarah Connor Gorber, Michel Joffres, Harminder Singh, Neil Bell

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in CMAJ open. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Prostate Cancer Mortality Trend in Montenegro 1990-2018.Iranian journal of public health · 2025
    Article
  4. The natural history of prostate cancer.Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada · 2025
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Targeting PI3K/Akt signaling in prostate cancer therapy.Journal of cell communication and signaling · 2023
    Review
  7. Review
  8. Assessment of the epidemiological trends for prostate cancer using administrative data in Ontario.Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada · 2023
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

James DickinsonUniversity of Calgary Medical Centre, Family Medicine; University of Calgary, Community Health Sciences (Dickinson), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada (Shane) Ottawa, Ont.; University of Calgary, Cumming School of Medicine; University of Calgary, Office of the Vice President (Research) (Tonelli), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada, Preventive Health Care Division (Connor Gorber), Ottawa, Ont.; Simon Fraser University (Joffres), Faculty of Health Sciences, Vancouver, BC; Department of Internal Medicine (Singh), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Family Medicine/Public Health Sciences (Bell), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.
Amanda ShaneUniversity of Calgary Medical Centre, Family Medicine; University of Calgary, Community Health Sciences (Dickinson), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada (Shane) Ottawa, Ont.; University of Calgary, Cumming School of Medicine; University of Calgary, Office of the Vice President (Research) (Tonelli), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada, Preventive Health Care Division (Connor Gorber), Ottawa, Ont.; Simon Fraser University (Joffres), Faculty of Health Sciences, Vancouver, BC; Department of Internal Medicine (Singh), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Family Medicine/Public Health Sciences (Bell), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.
Marcello TonelliUniversity of Calgary Medical Centre, Family Medicine; University of Calgary, Community Health Sciences (Dickinson), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada (Shane) Ottawa, Ont.; University of Calgary, Cumming School of Medicine; University of Calgary, Office of the Vice President (Research) (Tonelli), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada, Preventive Health Care Division (Connor Gorber), Ottawa, Ont.; Simon Fraser University (Joffres), Faculty of Health Sciences, Vancouver, BC; Department of Internal Medicine (Singh), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Family Medicine/Public Health Sciences (Bell), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.
Sarah Connor GorberUniversity of Calgary Medical Centre, Family Medicine; University of Calgary, Community Health Sciences (Dickinson), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada (Shane) Ottawa, Ont.; University of Calgary, Cumming School of Medicine; University of Calgary, Office of the Vice President (Research) (Tonelli), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada, Preventive Health Care Division (Connor Gorber), Ottawa, Ont.; Simon Fraser University (Joffres), Faculty of Health Sciences, Vancouver, BC; Department of Internal Medicine (Singh), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Family Medicine/Public Health Sciences (Bell), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.
Michel JoffresUniversity of Calgary Medical Centre, Family Medicine; University of Calgary, Community Health Sciences (Dickinson), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada (Shane) Ottawa, Ont.; University of Calgary, Cumming School of Medicine; University of Calgary, Office of the Vice President (Research) (Tonelli), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada, Preventive Health Care Division (Connor Gorber), Ottawa, Ont.; Simon Fraser University (Joffres), Faculty of Health Sciences, Vancouver, BC; Department of Internal Medicine (Singh), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Family Medicine/Public Health Sciences (Bell), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.
Harminder SinghUniversity of Calgary Medical Centre, Family Medicine; University of Calgary, Community Health Sciences (Dickinson), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada (Shane) Ottawa, Ont.; University of Calgary, Cumming School of Medicine; University of Calgary, Office of the Vice President (Research) (Tonelli), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada, Preventive Health Care Division (Connor Gorber), Ottawa, Ont.; Simon Fraser University (Joffres), Faculty of Health Sciences, Vancouver, BC; Department of Internal Medicine (Singh), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Family Medicine/Public Health Sciences (Bell), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.
Neil BellUniversity of Calgary Medical Centre, Family Medicine; University of Calgary, Community Health Sciences (Dickinson), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada (Shane) Ottawa, Ont.; University of Calgary, Cumming School of Medicine; University of Calgary, Office of the Vice President (Research) (Tonelli), Calgary, Alta.; Public Health Agency of Canada, Preventive Health Care Division (Connor Gorber), Ottawa, Ont.; Simon Fraser University (Joffres), Faculty of Health Sciences, Vancouver, BC; Department of Internal Medicine (Singh), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Family Medicine/Public Health Sciences (Bell), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWidespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) to screen for prostate cancer began in the early 1990s. Advocates for screening assert that this has caused a decrease in prostate cancer mortality. We sought to describe secular changes in prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Canada in relation to the onset of PSA screening.

methodsAge-standardized and age-specific prostate cancer incidence (1969-2007) and mortality (1969-2009) from Public Health Agency of Canada databases were analyzed by joinpoint regression. Changes in incidence and mortality were related to introduction of PSA screening.

resultsPrior to PSA screening, prostate cancer incidence increased from 54.2 to 99.8 per 100 000 between 1969 and 1990. Thereafter, incidence increased sharply (12.8% per year) to peak at 140.8/100 000 in 1993. After decreasing in all age groups between 1993 and 1996, incidence continued to increase for men aged less than 70 years, but decreased for older men. Age-standardized mortality was stable from 1969 to 1977, increased 1.4% per year to peak in 1995 and subsequently decreased at 3.3% per year; the decline started from 1987 in younger men (age < 60 yr).

interpretationIncidence was increasing before PSA screening occurred, but rose further after it was introduced. Reductions in prostate cancer mortality began before PSA screening was widely used and were larger than could be anticipated from screening alone. These findings suggest that screening caused artifactual increase in incidence, but no more than a part of reductions in prostate cancer mortality. The reduction may be due to changing treatment or certification of death.

Identifiers

PMID27280117
PMCPMC4866930

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.