ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2016
Cardiovascular screening to reduce the burden from cardiovascular disease: microsimulation study to quantify policy options.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 76 citations in OpenAlex.
- Delivery and impact of the NHS Health Check in the first 8 years: a systematic review.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2018Pooled it
- Improving case-finding of long-term health problems in disadvantaged communities: A Policy-focused Evidence Brief.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2026Article
- Synthetic data Using Population Profiles for cardiOvascular Risk facTors (SUPPORT) in mainland China.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Foundation models enable wearable signal screening for cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Exploring the contribution of risk factors on major illness: a microsimulation study in England, 2023-2043.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Highlights from the Manifesto on the Health Economics of Cardiovascular Disease Prevention.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Review
- Quantifying the contributions of cardiovascular risk factors to cardiovascular disease trends in 21st century Japan: a microsimulation study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Among at Risk Populations: Protocol for Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.JMIR research protocols · 2025Article
- Twenty years on from the introduction of the high risk strategy for stroke and cardiovascular disease prevention: a systematic scoping review.European journal of neurology · 2024Article
- The cost-effectiveness of a uniform versus age-based threshold for one-off screening for prevention of cardiovascular disease.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2023Article
- Using Polygenic Risk Scores for Prioritizing Individuals at Greatest Need of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2023Article
- A Case-Finding Protocol for High Cardiovascular Risk in a Primary Care Dental School-Model with Integrated Care.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Bayesian multistate modelling of incomplete chronic disease burden data.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2023Article
- Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults.BMC geriatrics · 2022Article
- Article
- NHS Health Checks: an observational study of equity and outcomes 2009-2017.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2021Observational
- [Effectiveness of different screening strategies for cardiovascular diseases prevention in a community-based Chinese population: A decision-analytic Markov model].Beijing da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Peking University. Health sciences · 2021Article
- A focus group study of older Chinese people with CVD patients in the North West of the UK.Primary health care research & development · 2021Article
- Modelling tool to support decision-making in the NHS Health Check programme: workshops, systematic review and co-production with users.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England) · 2021Article
- Social cross-over in cardiovascular disease: context matters.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo estimate the potential impact of universal screening for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (National Health Service Health Checks) on disease burden and socioeconomic inequalities in health in England, and to compare universal screening with alternative feasible strategies.
designMicrosimulation study of a close-to-reality synthetic population. Five scenarios were considered: baseline scenario, assuming that current trends in risk factors will continue in the future; universal screening; screening concentrated only in the most deprived areas; structural population-wide intervention; and combination of population-wide intervention and concentrated screening.
settingSynthetic population with similar characteristics to the community dwelling population of England.
participantsSynthetic people with traits informed by the health survey for England.
main outcome measureCardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed by 2030, stratified by fifths of socioeconomic status using the index of multiple deprivation.
resultsCompared with the baseline scenario, universal screening may prevent or postpone approximately 19 000 cases (interquartile range 11 000-28 000) and 3000 deaths (-1000-6000); concentrated screening 17 000 cases (9000-26 000) and 2000 deaths (-1000-5000); population-wide intervention 67 000 cases (57 000-77 000) and 8000 deaths (4000-11 000); and the combination of the population-wide intervention and concentrated screening 82 000 cases (73 000-93 000) and 9000 deaths (6000-13 000). The most equitable strategy would be the combination of the population-wide intervention and concentrated screening, followed by concentrated screening alone and the population-wide intervention. Universal screening had the least apparent impact on socioeconomic inequalities in health.
conclusionsWhen primary prevention strategies for reducing cardiovascular disease burden and inequalities are compared, universal screening seems less effective than alternative strategies, which incorporate population-wide approaches. Further research is needed to identify the best mix of population-wide and risk targeted CVD strategies to maximise cost effectiveness and minimise inequalities.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.