ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2016
Utilizing Nontraditional Data Sources for Near Real-Time Estimation of Transmission Dynamics During the 2015-2016 Colombian Zika Virus Disease Outbreak.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 63 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
63 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The Application of Internet-Based Sources for Public Health Surveillance (Infoveillance): Systematic Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2020Pooled it
- A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Assessing the Methods, Tools, and Statistical Approaches in Google Trends Research: Systematic Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2018Pooled it
- Assessing human judgment forecasts in the rapid spread of the mpox outbreak: insights and challenges for pandemic preparedness.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Developing predictive models for COVID-19 positive tests based on the XGBoost and random forest algorithms with internet search data.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Early Warning of Infectious Disease Outbreaks Using Social Media and Digital Data: A Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding mosquito-borne diseases in an urban sector of southwestern Colombia.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- The effects of seasonal human mobility and Aedes aegypti habitat suitability on Zika virus epidemic severity in Colombia.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- The prediction of influenza-like illness using national influenza surveillance data and Baidu query data.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Artificial intelligence in public health: the potential of epidemic early warning systems.The Journal of international medical research · 2023Review
- Measuring concordance of data sources used for infectious disease research in the USA: a retrospective data analysis.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Global Variations in Event-Based Surveillance for Disease Outbreak Detection: Time Series Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- Forecasting and Surveillance of COVID-19 Spread Using Google Trends: Literature Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- Suitability of Google Trends™ for Digital Surveillance During Ongoing COVID-19 Epidemic: A Case Study from India.Disaster medicine and public health preparedness · 2021Article
- Sociodemographic characteristics of missing data in digital phenotyping.Scientific reports · 2021Observational
- Article
- A research and policy agenda for the post-pandemic world.Future healthcare journal · 2021Article
- Development of an Index for the Inspection of Aedes aegypti Breeding Sites in Brazil: Multi-criteria Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
- Can technological advancements help to alleviate COVID-19 pandemic? a review.Journal of biomedical informatics · 2021Review
3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundApproximately 40 countries in Central and South America have experienced local vector-born transmission of Zika virus, resulting in nearly 300,000 total reported cases of Zika virus disease to date. Of the cases that have sought care thus far in the region, more than 70,000 have been reported out of Colombia.
objectiveIn this paper, we use nontraditional digital disease surveillance data via HealthMap and Google Trends to develop near real-time estimates for the basic (R) and observed (Robs) reproductive numbers associated with Zika virus disease in Colombia. We then validate our results against traditional health care-based disease surveillance data.
methodsCumulative reported case counts of Zika virus disease in Colombia were acquired via the HealthMap digital disease surveillance system. Linear smoothing was conducted to adjust the shape of the HealthMap cumulative case curve using Google search data. Traditional surveillance data on Zika virus disease were obtained from weekly Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS) epidemiological bulletin publications. The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model was used to estimate R0 and Robs for both data sources.
resultsUsing the digital (smoothed HealthMap) data, we estimated a mean R0 of 2.56 (range 1.42-3.83) and a mean Robs of 1.80 (range 1.42-2.30). The traditional (INS) data yielded a mean R0 of 4.82 (range 2.34-8.32) and a mean Robs of 2.34 (range 1.60-3.31).
conclusionsAlthough modeling using the traditional (INS) data yielded higher R estimates than the digital (smoothed HealthMap) data, modeled ranges for Robs were comparable across both data sources. As a result, the narrow range of possible case projections generated by the traditional (INS) data was largely encompassed by the wider range produced by the digital (smoothed HealthMap) data. Thus, in the absence of traditional surveillance data, digital surveillance data can yield similar estimates for key transmission parameters and should be utilized in other Zika virus-affected countries to assess outbreak dynamics in near real time.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.