Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27240717›Full record

ArticleRadiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology2016

Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) modelling using spatial dose metrics and machine learning methods for severe acute oral mucositis resulting from head and neck radiotherapy.

Jamie A Dean, Kee H Wong, Liam C Welsh, Ann-Britt Jones, Ulrike Schick, Kate L Newbold, Shreerang A Bhide, Kevin J Harrington, Christopher M Nutting, Sarah L Gulliford

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of the European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 57 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
57citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
9.2field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

57 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 111 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Radiomic and dosiomic machine learning models for predicting radiation-induced oral mucositis in head and neck cancer: a systematic review.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Jamie A DeanJoint Department of Physics at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK. Electronic address: jamie.dean@icr.ac.uk.
Kee H WongThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Liam C WelshThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Ann-Britt JonesThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Ulrike SchickThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Kate L NewboldThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK; The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Shreerang A BhideThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK; The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Kevin J HarringtonThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK; The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Christopher M NuttingThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK; The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Sarah L GullifordJoint Department of Physics at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust · GBInstitute of Cancer Research · GB

Funding

Cancer Research UK A13407Department of Health marbrc-2012-1Department of Health MARBRC-2012-1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

background and purposeSevere acute mucositis commonly results from head and neck (chemo)radiotherapy. A predictive model of mucositis could guide clinical decision-making and inform treatment planning. We aimed to generate such a model using spatial dose metrics and machine learning. MATERIALS AND

methodsPredictive models of severe acute mucositis were generated using radiotherapy dose (dose-volume and spatial dose metrics) and clinical data. Penalised logistic regression, support vector classification and random forest classification (RFC) models were generated and compared. Internal validation was performed (with 100-iteration cross-validation), using multiple metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration slope, to assess performance. Associations between covariates and severe mucositis were explored using the models.

resultsThe dose-volume-based models (standard) performed equally to those incorporating spatial information. Discrimination was similar between models, but the RFCstandard had the best calibration. The mean AUC and calibration slope for this model were 0.71 (s.d.=0.09) and 3.9 (s.d.=2.2), respectively. The volumes of oral cavity receiving intermediate and high doses were associated with severe mucositis.

conclusionsThe RFCstandard model performance is modest-to-good, but should be improved, and requires external validation. Reducing the volumes of oral cavity receiving intermediate and high doses may reduce mucositis incidence.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAcute DiseaseClinical Decision-MakingFemaleHead and Neck NeoplasmsHumansLogistic ModelsMaleModels, TheoreticalProbabilityRadiation InjuriesRadiotherapy DosageStomatitisDose–response modellingHead and neck radiotherapyMachine learningNTCP modellingOral mucositisSpatial dose metrics

Identifiers

PMID27240717
PMCPMC5021201
OpenAlexW2400084545

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.