Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27240151›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of cardiology2016

Effect of cold spells and their modifiers on cardiovascular disease events: Evidence from two prospective studies.

Claudio Sartini, Sarah J E Barry, S Goya Wannamethee, Peter H Whincup, Lucy Lennon, Ian Ford, Richard W Morris

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of cardiology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. The interplay of climate change and physical activity: Implications for cardiovascular health.American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice · 2024
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Use of primary care data to predict those most vulnerable to cold weather: a case-crossover analysis.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2018
    Article
  14. Health effects of milder winters: a review of evidence from the United Kingdom.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2017
    Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Claudio SartiniDepartment of Primary Care & Population Health, University College London, Rowland Hill Street, NW3 2PF London. UK. Electronic address: c.sartini@ucl.ac.uk.
Sarah J E BarryInstitute of Health and Wellbeing, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, Robertson Centre for Biostatistics, Boyd Orr Building, Level 11 University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK.
S Goya WannametheeDepartment of Primary Care & Population Health, University College London, Rowland Hill Street, NW3 2PF London. UK.
Peter H WhincupPopulation Health Research Institute, St George's University of London, Cranmer Terrace, London SW17 0RE, UK.
Lucy LennonDepartment of Primary Care & Population Health, University College London, Rowland Hill Street, NW3 2PF London. UK.
Ian FordInstitute of Health and Wellbeing, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, Robertson Centre for Biostatistics, Boyd Orr Building, Level 11 University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK.
Richard W MorrisSchool of Social & Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Rd, Bristol BS8 2PS, UK.

Funding

British Heart Foundation PG/09/024/26857British Heart Foundation PG/13/41/30304British Heart Foundation RG/08/013/25942British Heart Foundation RG/13/16/30528
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo investigate effects of cold weather spells on incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and potential effect modification of socio-demographic, clinical, behavioural and environmental exposures.

methodsData from two prospective studies were analysed: the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS), a population-based study of British men aged 60-79years, followed for CVD incidence from 1998-2000 to 2012; and the PROSPER study of men and women aged 70-82 recruited to a trial of pravastatin vs placebo from 1997 to 9 (followed until 2009). Cold spells were defined as at least three consecutive days when daily mean temperature fell below the monthly 10th percentile specific to the closest local weather station. A time-stratified case-crossover approach was used to estimate associations between cold spells and CVD events.

results921 of 4252 men from BRHS and 760 of 2519 participants from PROSPER suffered a first CVD event during follow-up. More CVD events were registered in winter in both studies. The risk ratio (RR) associated with cold spells was statistically significant in BRHS (RR=1.86, 95% CI 1.30-2.65, p<0.001), and independent of temperature level: results were similar whether events were fatal or non-fatal. Increased risk was particularly marked in BRHS for ever-smokers (RR of 2.44 vs 0.99 for never-smokers), in moderate/heavy drinkers (RR 2.59 vs 1.41), and during winter months (RR 3.28 vs 1.25). No increased risk was found in PROSPER.

conclusionsAlthough CVD risks were higher in winter in both BRHS and PROSPER prospective studies, cold spells increased risk of CVD events, independently of cold temperature, in the BRHS only.

Indexed as

AgedAged, 80 and overCardiovascular DiseasesCold TemperatureEnvironmental ExposureFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedOdds RatioProspective StudiesCardiovascular diseaseCold spellOlder peopleOutdoor temperatureProspective studyWinter deaths

Identifiers

PMID27240151
PMCPMC4917887

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.