ReviewJournal of psychopharmacology (Oxford, England)2016
Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.
Review in Journal of psychopharmacology (Oxford, England), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 55 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
55 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 146 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effects of ketamine on fear memory extinction: a review of preclinical literature.Frontiers in neuroscience · 2025Pooled it
- Ketamine reduces the neural distinction between self- and other-produced affective touch: a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled study.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2024Trial
- Trial
- Premature commitment to uncertain decisions during human NMDA receptor hypofunction.Nature communications · 2022Trial
- Association between dynamic resting-state functional connectivity and ketamine plasma levels in visual processing networks.Scientific reports · 2019Trial
- Errors or Adaptations? A Critical Review of Predictive Processing in Psychiatry.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- A review and integration of models on delusion maintenance.Psychological medicine · 2026Review
- Ketamine disrupts consciousness in healthy participants in relation with psychotic-like symptoms.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Using machine learning to predict persecutory beliefs based on aetiological models of delusions identified in a systematic literature search.Communications psychology · 2025Article
- Predictive coding and neurocomputational psychiatry: a mechanistic framework for understanding mental disorders.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Article
- How Layer-Specific fMRI Can Contribute to Understanding Perceptual Disturbances Across Psychiatric Disorders.Current topics in behavioral neurosciences · 2025Review
- Dynamic predictive templates in perception.Current biology : CB · 2024Article
- An Integrated theory of false insights and beliefs under psychedelics.Communications psychology · 2024Review
- Distinct alterations in probabilistic reversal learning across at-risk mental state, first episode psychosis and persistent schizophrenia.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Understanding Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Psychosis Through the Predictive Coding Framework.Biological psychiatry global open science · 2024Review
- Ziconotide and psychosis: from a case report to a scoping review.Frontiers in molecular neuroscience · 2024Article
- Ketamine, an Old-New Drug: Uses and Abuses.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Review
- Reinforcement learning deficits exhibited by postnatal PCP-treated rats enable deep neural network classification.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2023Article
- Differential Trajectories of Delusional Content and Severity Over 2 Years of Early Intervention for Psychosis: Comparison Between Chennai, India, and Montréal, Canada.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2023Article
- Cognitive Control System Gates Insula Processing of Affective Stimuli in Early Psychosis.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.