ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2016
Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Multiregional Population Forecasting: A Unifying Probabilistic Approach for Modelling the Components of Change.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2025Article
- The Role of Oligodendrocyte Lineage Cells in the Pathogenesis of Alzheimer's Disease.Neurochemical research · 2025Review
- Stochastic evolution model for international migration.PloS one · 2025Article
- Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.Demography · 2023Article
- Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Demography: Fast and Slow.Population and development review · 2022Article
- Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces.Climate risk management · 2022Article
- How Armed Conflict Influences Migration.Population and development review · 2021Article
- The Zoltar forecast archive, a tool to standardize and store interdisciplinary prediction research.Scientific data · 2021Article
- Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
- Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.Lancet (London, England) · 2018Article
- Estimating Large Correlation Matrices for International Migration.The annals of applied statistics · 2018Article
- Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.Population studies · 2018Article
- Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality.Population ecology · 2018Article
- Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal.Demography · 2017Article
- Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term.International journal of forecastingArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.
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