ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2017
Estimating Causal Effects of Local Air Pollution on Daily Deaths: Effect of Low Levels.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 128 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Assessing the Impact of Improved Cookstove Technology Trials (ICTs) on Household Air Pollution and Human Health in Sub-Saharan Africa.Current environmental health reports · 2025Pooled it
- Global Association of Air Pollution and Cardiorespiratory Diseases: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Investigation of Modifier Variables.American journal of public health · 2018Pooled it
- Causal effects of wildfire PMNature communications · 2026Article
- Predicting dynamic individual out-of-hospital cardiac arrest risks using explainable machine learning: a multicenter study in China.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Article
- Pitfalls of Using Negative Control Outcomes in Environmental Epidemiology.Current environmental health reports · 2025Article
- Association of air pollution exposure and genetic susceptibility with increased risk of thoracic aortic aneurysm and dissection.Nature cardiovascular research · 2025Article
- Causal association between PMScientific reports · 2025Article
- Independent and combined effects of long-term air pollution exposure and genetic predisposition on COVID-19 severity: A population-based cohort study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Effect of Air Pollution Reductions on Mortality During the COVID-19 Lockdowns in Early 2020.Research report (Health Effects Institute) · 2025Article
- Air pollution below US regulatory standards and cardiovascular diseases using a double negative control approach.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Ambient air pollution and daily mortality in ten cities of India: a causal modelling study.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2024Article
- Short-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Nitrogen Dioxide and Mortality in 4 Countries.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Article
- The short-term effect of ozone on pregnancy loss modified by temperature: Findings from a nationwide epidemiological study in the contiguous United States.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution Below Regulatory Standards and Cardiovascular Diseases Among US Medicare Beneficiaries: A Double Negative Control Approach.Research square · 2023Article
- An integrated analysis of air pollution and meteorological conditions in Jakarta.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Identifying the causal effects of long-term exposure to PMBMC medicine · 2023Article
- Assessment of trace elements directly from archived total suspended particulate filters by laser ablation ICP-MS: A case study of South Carolina.Journal of trace elements and minerals · 2023Article
- Synergy of Biostatistics and Epidemiology in Air Pollution Health Effects Studies.International statistical review = Revue internationale de statistique · 2022Article
- Acute effect of fine particulate matter and respiratory mortality in Changsha, China: a time-series analysis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAlthough many time-series studies have established associations of daily pollution variations with daily deaths, there are fewer at low concentrations, or focused on locally generated pollution, which is becoming more important as regulations reduce regional transport. Causal modeling approaches are also lacking.
objectiveWe used causal modeling to estimate the impact of local air pollution on mortality at low concentrations.
methodsUsing an instrumental variable approach, we developed an instrument for variations in local pollution concentrations that is unlikely to be correlated with other causes of death, and examined its association with daily deaths in the Boston, Massachusetts, area. We combined height of the planetary boundary layer and wind speed, which affect concentrations of local emissions, to develop the instrument for particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), or nitrogen dioxide (NO2) variations that were independent of year, month, and temperature. We also used Granger causality to assess whether omitted variable confounding existed.
resultsWe estimated that an interquartile range increase in the instrument for local PM2.5 was associated with a 0.90% increase in daily deaths (95% CI: 0.25, 1.56). A similar result was found for BC, and a weaker association with NO2. The Granger test found no evidence of omitted variable confounding for the instrument. A separate test confirmed the instrument was not associated with mortality independent of pollution. Furthermore, the association remained when all days with PM2.5 concentrations > 30 μg/m3 were excluded from the analysis (0.84% increase in daily deaths; 95% CI: 0.19, 1.50).
conclusionsWe conclude that there is a causal association of local air pollution with daily deaths at concentrations below U.S. EPA standards. The estimated attributable risk in Boston exceeded 1,800 deaths during the study period, indicating that important public health benefits can follow from further control efforts. Citation: Schwartz J, Bind MA, Koutrakis P. 2017. Estimating causal effects of local air pollution on daily deaths: effect of low levels. Environ Health Perspect 125:23-29; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP232.
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