ArticleGlobal health action
Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil.
Article in Global health action. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Pooled it
- Systematic Review: Land Cover, Meteorological, and Socioeconomic Determinants of Aedes Mosquito Habitat for Risk Mapping.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Pooled it
- Spatiotemporal analysis of mosquito-borne infections and mosquito vectors in mainland Portugal.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Predicting the risk of malaria importation into Jiangsu Province, China: a modeling study.Globalization and health · 2024Article
- Temporal variations in international air travel: implications for modelling the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of travel medicine · 2024Article
- Vector Surveillance, Host Species Richness, and Demographic Factors as West Nile Disease Risk Indicators.Viruses · 2021Article
- Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Public health emergencies of international concern: a historic overview.Journal of travel medicine · 2020Review
- A scoping review of importation and predictive models related to vector-borne diseases, pathogens, reservoirs, or vectors (1999-2016).PloS one · 2020Article
- Risk of yellow fever virus importation into the United States from Brazil, outbreak years 2016-2017 and 2017-2018.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- ZikaPLAN: addressing the knowledge gaps and working towards a research preparedness network in the Americas.Global health action · 2019Article
- Article
- Modelling an optimum vaccination strategy against ZIKA virus for outbreak use.Epidemiology and infection · 2019Article
- Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- Zika virus: epidemiology, clinical aspects, diagnosis, and control of infection.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2018Review
- A conceptual model for optimizing vaccine coverage to reduce vector-borne infections in the presence of antibody-dependent enhancement.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2018Article
- Zika virus infection in the returning traveller: what every neurologist should know.Practical neurology · 2018Review
- Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Novel tools for the surveillance and control of dengue: findings by the DengueTools research consortium.Global health action · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundGiven the interconnectivity of Brazil with the rest of the world, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers. The extent of spread depends on the travel volume and the endemicity in the exporting country. In the absence of reliable surveillance data, we did mathematical modelling to estimate the number of importations of ZIKV from Brazil into Europe.
designWe applied a previously developed mathematical model on importations of dengue to estimate the number of ZIKV importations into Europe, based on the travel volume, the probability of being infected at the time of travel, the population size of Brazil, and the estimated incidence of ZIKV infections.
resultsOur model estimated between 508 and 1,778 imported infections into Europe in 2016, of which we would expect between 116 and 355 symptomatic Zika infections; with the highest number of importations being into France, Portugal and Italy.
conclusionsOur model identified high-risk countries in Europe. Such data can assist policymakers and public health professionals in estimating the extent of importations in order to prepare for the scale up of laboratory diagnostic assays and estimate the occurrence of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, potential sexual transmission, and infants with congenital ZIKV syndrome.
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