A Twin Protection Effect? Explaining Twin Survival Advantages with a Two-Process Mortality Model.

Twin studies that focus on the correlation in age-at-death between twin pairs have yielded important insights into the heritability and role of genetic factors in determining lifespan, but less attention is paid to the biological and social role of zygosity itself in determining survival across the entire life course. Using data from the Danish Twin Registry and the Human Mortality Database, we show that monozygotic twins have greater cumulative survival proportions at nearly every age compared to dizygotic twins and the Danish general population. We examine this survival advantage by fitting these data with a two-process mortality model that partitions survivorship patterns into extrinsic and intrinsic mortality processes roughly corresponding to acute, environmental and chronic, biological origins. We find intrinsic processes confer a survival advantage at older ages for males, while at younger ages, all monozygotic twins show a health protection effect against extrinsic death akin to a marriage protection effect. While existing research suggests an increasingly important role for genetic factors at very advanced ages, we conclude that the social closeness of monozygotic twins is a plausible driver of the survival advantage at ages <65.