SynthesisAmerican journal of epidemiology2016
Changes in Susceptibility to Heat During the Summer: A Multicountry Analysis.
Synthesis in American journal of epidemiology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 67 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
67 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Building the model: a review of input structures in extreme temperature-health.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Pooled it
- Air Conditioning Use and Ambulance Transports for Heat-Related Illness Across Summer Months in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2026Article
- Identifying heat-related diagnoses in emergency department visits among adults in Chicago: A heat-wide association study.Science advances · 2026Article
- Prenatal heat stress and predicted postpartum cardiovascular disease risk: a longitudinal cohort study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Within-summer variation in the heat-related emergency department visits among older adults in South Korea: a population-based case-crossover study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Ambient temperature and the variability between neighbouring days impacts in-patient hospitalizations in the United Kingdom.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Article
- Modeling approaches for estimating the effects of risk factors using longitudinal lifecourse exposure data in dementia research.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025Review
- Effect of foot immersion and neck cooling on renal, intestinal, immune and inflammatory markers in older adults exposed to extreme heat.Experimental physiology · 2025Article
- Novel Method for Measuring Ambient Heat Exposure-Acute Healthcare Utilization Associations Within a Safety Net: A Retrospective, Longitudinal Study.Journal of general internal medicine · 2025Article
- Association of urbanization-related factors with tuberculosis incidence among 1992 counties in China from 2005 to 2019: a nationwide observational study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Observational
- Efficiency of case-crossover versus time-series study designs for extreme heat exposures.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2025Article
- Association between urbanization levels and frailty among middle-aged and older adults in China: evidence from the CHARLS.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- Subseasonal Prediction of Heat-Related Mortality in Switzerland.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Extreme Temperatures, Hospital Utilization and Public Health Insurance Spending.International journal of public health · 2025Article
- Disparities in the burden of tuberculosis associated with urbanization across 178 countries and territories: an observational study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Observational
- Historical and future heat-related mortality in Portugal's Alentejo region.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Exposure to Ambient Heat and Risk of Spontaneous Abortion: A Case-Crossover Study.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2024Article
- Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2024Article
- The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network: An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2024Article
7 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Few studies have examined the variation in mortality risk associated with heat during the summer. Here, we apply flexible statistical models to investigate the issue by using a large multicountry data set. We collected daily time-series data of temperature and mortality from 305 locations in 9 countries, in the period 1985-2012. We first estimated the heat-mortality relationship in each location with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models, using a bivariate spline to model the exposure-lag-response over lag 0-10. Estimates were then pooled by country through multivariate meta-analysis. Results provide strong evidence of a reduction in risk over the season. Relative risks for the 99th percentile versus the minimum mortality temperature were in the range of 1.15-2.03 in early summer. In late summer, the excess was substantially reduced or abated, with relative risks in the range of 0.97-1.41 and indications of wider comfort ranges and higher minimum mortality temperatures. The attenuation is mainly due to shorter lag periods in late summer. In conclusion, this multicountry analysis suggests a reduction of heat-related mortality risk over the summer, which can be attributed to several factors, such as true acclimatization, adaptive behaviors, or harvesting effects. These findings may have implications on public health policies and climate change health impact projections.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.