ArticleScientific reports2016
A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs.
Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 83 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predicting Coral Cover Trends From Local to Broad Spatial Scales.Global change biology · 2026Article
- A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Bayesian clustering of spatially distributed compositional data with application to the Great Barrier Reef.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Disturbance intensification is altering the trait composition of Caribbean reefs, locking them into a low functioning state.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Co-occurring anthropogenic stressors reduce the timeframe of environmental viability for the world's coral reefs.PLoS biology · 2022Article
- Adaptive monitoring of coral health at Scott Reef where data exhibit nonlinear and disturbed trends over time.Ecology and evolution · 2022Article
- Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Sediment supply dampens the erosive effects of sea-level rise on reef islands.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Article
- Impaired recovery of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative stress.Science advances · 2018Article
- The global flood protection savings provided by coral reefs.Nature communications · 2018Article
- Disturbance Is an Important Driver of Clonal Richness in Tropical Seagrasses.Frontiers in plant science · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models - including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.
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