ArticleBMC public health2016
Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje.
Article in BMC public health, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2024Pooled it
- Impacts of exposure to ambient temperature on burden of disease: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence.International journal of biometeorology · 2019Pooled it
- The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.PloS one · 2017Pooled it
- Future heat-related mortality in Europe driven by compound day-night heatwaves and demographic shifts.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed?Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
- Estimating the Burden of Heat-Related Illness Morbidity Attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina.GeoHealth · 2022Article
- Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces.Climate risk management · 2022Article
- The effect and prediction of diurnal temperature range in high altitude area on outpatient and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular diseases.International archives of occupational and environmental health · 2021Article
- Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention.Environment international · 2018Article
- Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundExcessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period.
methodsAfter ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact.
resultsOur estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability.
conclusionThese results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.
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