A novel approach to evaluating the benefit of post-urinary tract infection renal ultrasonography, using decision curve analysis.

backgroundThe benefit of post-urinary tract infection (UTI) sonography to detect clinically significant renal abnormalities remains a subject open to debate. Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a novel method for evaluating the clinical usefulness of diagnostic tests. Our objective was to determine, using DCA, the benefit of post-UTI sonography and of post-UTI sonography with biological markers of inflammation to predict the risk of recurrence of febrile UTI in children aged 2 to 24 months without known uropathy.

methodsWe retrospectively analyzed all children aged 2 to 24 months, without known uropathy, who presented with a first episode of febrile UTI between 2009 and 2012 and followed them for 30 months. We then used DCA to estimate the benefit of post-UTI sonography or post-UTI sonography + biological markers of inflammation for detecting the risk of recurrence.

resultsA total of 318 children [144 boys (45.3 %) and 174 girls (54.7 %)], with a mean age of 6.9 ± 5.6 months, were identified. Of these, 210 children presented with a significant inflammation [66.2 %; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 61.0-71.4], and 30 (9.4 %; 95 % CI 6.2-12.6) presented with abnormal post-UTI sonographic findings. Eighteen (5.7 %; 95 % CI 3.1-8.2) children presented with recurrent UTI at 30 months.

conclusionsThere were significantly more recurrences in those children who presented with abnormal sonographic findings than in those who did not (relative risk 7.68; 95 % CI 3.03-19.46). However, taking into account the effect of false-positives and false negatives, the DCA revealed that for threshold probabilities of >30 %, at which patients/doctors are concerned about unnecessary interventions (whether tests or treatments), neither post-UTI sonography nor post-UTI sonography + biological markers of inflammation have sufficient value to improve care.