Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27174305›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2016

Global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for young people's health during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Ali H Mokdad, Mohammad Hossein Forouzanfar, Farah Daoud, Arwa A Mokdad, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Ryan M Barber, Joseph Wagner, Kelly Cercy and 58 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 447 papers, 11 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
447citing papers in PubMed, 11 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

447 citing papers in PubMed, 11 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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387 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

68 authors.

Ali H MokdadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: mokdaa@uw.edu.
Mohammad Hossein ForouzanfarInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Farah DaoudInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Arwa A MokdadInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Charbel El BcheraouiInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Maziar Moradi-LakehInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Community Medicine, Gastrointestinal and Liver Disease Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Hmwe Hmwe KyuInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Ryan M BarberInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Joseph WagnerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Kelly CercyInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Hannah KravitzInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Megan CoggeshallInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Adrienne ChewInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Kevin F O'RourkeInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Caitlyn SteinerInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Marwa TuffahaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Raghid ChararaInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Essam Abdullah Al-GhamdiSaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Yaser AdiSaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Rima A AfifiDepartment of Health Promotion and Community Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.
Hanan AlahmadiInstitute of Public Administration, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Fadia AlBuhairanKing Abdullah Specialized Children's Hospital, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Nicholas AllenDepartment of Psychology, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA.
Mohammad AlMazroaSaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Abdulwahab A Al-NehmiMinistry of Health, Sana'a, Yemen.
Zulfa AlRayessSaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Monika AroraPublic Health Foundation of India, Delhi, India.
Peter AzzopardiCentre for Adolescent Health, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia; South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, SA, Australia; South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, SA, Australia; Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Carmen BarrosoInternational Planned Parenthood Federation, New York, NY, USA.
Mohammed BasulaimanSaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Zulfiqar A BhuttaCenter of Excellence in Women and Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan; Centre for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Chris BonellDepartment of Social Science, UCL Institute of Education, University College London, London, UK.
Cecilia BreinbauerDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Louisa DegenhardtNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Donna DennoDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Jing FangInstitute for Health Sciences, Kunming Medical University, Kunming City, China.
Adesegun FatusiDepartment of Community Health, College of Health Sciences, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife, Nigeria.
Andrea B FeiglDepartment of Global Health and Population, TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Ritsuko KakumaGlobal and Cultural Mental Health Unit, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Nadim KaramUniversity of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon.
Elissa KennedyCentre for International Health, Burnet Institute and School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Tawfik A M KhojaExecutive Board, Health Ministers' Council for Cooperation Council States, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Fadi MaaloufFaculty of Health Sciences, Department of Psychiatry; Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.
Carla Makhlouf ObermeyerCenter for Research on Population and Health; Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.
Amitabh MattooMelbourne School of Government, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Australia India Institute, Carlton, VIC, Australia; School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, Delhi, India.
Terry McGovernMailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Ziad A MemishSaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
George A MensahCenter for Translation Research and Implementation Science, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Vikram PatelPublic Health Foundation of India, Delhi, India; Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Suzanne PetroniInternational Center for Research on Women, Washington, DC, USA.
Nicola ReavleyCentre for Mental Health, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Diego Rios ZertucheSalud Mesoamérica 2015 Initiative, Panama City, Panama.
Mohammad SaeediSaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
John SantelliMailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Susan M SawyerCentre for Adolescent Health, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Fred SsewamalaInternational Center for Child Health and Asset Development, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Kikelomo TaiwoThe Lancet Youth, Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Wellbeing, London, UK.
Muhammad TantawySaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Russell M VinerInstitute of Child Health, University College London, London, UK.
Jane WaldfogelSchool of Social Work, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Maria Paola ZuñigaSalud Mesoamérica 2015 Initiative, Panama City, Panama.
Mohsen NaghaviInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Haidong WangInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Theo VosInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Alan D LopezInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Abdullah A Al RabeeahSaudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
George C PattonCentre for Adolescent Health, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Christopher J L MurrayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundYoung people's health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young people's health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors.

methodsThe Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) includes annual assessments for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013, covering 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. We used the comparative risk assessment approach to assess how much of the burden of disease reported in a given year can be attributed to past exposure to a risk. We estimated attributable burden by comparing observed health outcomes with those that would have been observed if an alternative or counterfactual level of exposure had occurred in the past. We applied the same method to previous years to allow comparisons from 1990 to 2013. We cross-tabulated the quantiles of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by quintiles of DALYs annual increase from 1990 to 2013 to show rates of DALYs increase by burden. We used the GBD 2013 hierarchy of causes that organises 306 diseases and injuries into four levels of classification. Level one distinguishes three broad categories: first, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; second, non-communicable diseases; and third, injuries. Level two has 21 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, level three has 163 categories, and level four has 254 categories.

findingsThe leading causes of death in 2013 for young people aged 10-14 years were HIV/AIDS, road injuries, and drowning (25·2%), whereas transport injuries were the leading cause of death for ages 15-19 years (14·2%) and 20-24 years (15·6%). Maternal disorders were the highest cause of death for young women aged 20-24 years (17·1%) and the fourth highest for girls aged 15-19 years (11·5%) in 2013. Unsafe sex as a risk factor for DALYs increased from the 13th rank to the second for both sexes aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2013. Alcohol misuse was the highest risk factor for DALYs (7·0% overall, 10·5% for males, and 2·7% for females) for young people aged 20-24 years, whereas drug use accounted for 2·7% (3·3% for males and 2·0% for females). The contribution of risk factors varied between and within countries. For example, for ages 20-24 years, drug use was highest in Qatar and accounted for 4·9% of DALYs, followed by 4·8% in the United Arab Emirates, whereas alcohol use was highest in Russia and accounted for 21·4%, followed by 21·0% in Belarus. Alcohol accounted for 9·0% (ranging from 4·2% in Hong Kong to 11·3% in Shandong) in China and 11·6% (ranging from 10·1% in Aguascalientes to 14·9% in Chihuahua) of DALYs in Mexico for young people aged 20-24 years. Alcohol and drug use in those aged 10-24 years had an annual rate of change of >1·0% from 1990 to 2013 and accounted for more than 3·1% of DALYs.

interpretationOur findings call for increased efforts to improve health and reduce the burden of disease and risks for diseases in later life in young people. Moreover, because of the large variations between countries in risks and burden, a global approach to improve health during this important period of life will fail unless the particularities of each country are taken into account. Finally, our results call for a strategy to overcome the financial and technical barriers to adequately capture young people's health risk factors and their determinants in health information systems.

fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessAccidents, TrafficAdolescentAge DistributionAge FactorsAlcoholismCause of DeathChildDrowningFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansInfectionsMalePersons with DisabilitiesQuality-Adjusted Life Years

Identifiers

PMID27174305

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.