Lung Cancer Mortality and Topography: A Xuanwei Case Study.

The epidemic of lung cancer in Xuanwei City, China, remains serious despite the reduction of the risk of indoor air pollution through citywide stove improvement. The main objective of this study was to characterize the influences of topography on the spatiotemporal variations of lung cancer mortality in Xuanwei during 1990-2013. Using the spatially empirical Bayes method, the smoothed mortality rate of lung cancer was obtained according to the mortality data and population data collected from the retrospective survey (1990-2005) and online registration data (2011-2013). Spatial variations of the village-level mortality rate and topographic factors, including the relief degree of land surface (RDLS) and dwelling conditions (VDC), were characterized through spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis. The relationship between topographic factors and the epidemic of lung cancer was explored using correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR). There is a pocket-like area (PLA) in Xuanwei, covering the clustered villages with lower RDLS and higher VDC. Although the villages with higher mortality rate (>80 per 10⁵) geographically expanded from the center to the northeast of Xuanwei during 1990-2013, the village-level mortality rate was spatially clustered, which yielded a persistent hotspot area in the upward part of the PLA. In particular, the epidemic of lung cancer was closely correlated with both RDLS and VDC at the village scale, and its spatial heterogeneity could be greatly explained by the village-level VDC in the GWR model. Spatiotemporally featured lung cancer mortality in Xuanwei was potentially influenced by topographic conditions at the village scale.