Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27161077›Full record

ArticleDiabetes, obesity & metabolism2016

Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

C M Parrinello, K Matsushita, M Woodward, L E Wagenknecht, J Coresh, E Selvin

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Diabetes, obesity & metabolism, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Review
  4. Article
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  8. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

C M ParrinelloDepartment of Epidemiology and the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
K MatsushitaDepartment of Epidemiology and the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
M WoodwardDepartment of Epidemiology and the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
L E WagenknechtDivision of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
J CoreshDepartment of Epidemiology and the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
E SelvinDepartment of Epidemiology and the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.

Funding

CARDIOVASCULAR EPIDEMIOLOGY INSTITUTIONAL TRAININGT32HL007024 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Elizabeth Selvin · 1985 to 2026
$17.5M
Diabetes and Prediabetes in Older Adults in ARICR01DK089174 · NIDDK · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI SELVIN, ELIZABETH · 2011 to 2020
$6.4M
Research and Mentoring in the Clinical Epidemiology of Type 2 DiabetesK24DK106414 · NIDDK · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI SELVIN, ELIZABETH · 2015 to 2019
$654k
NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005GNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100006CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100007CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100007INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100008CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100008INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100010CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100011CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100011INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100012CNHLBI NIH HHS T32 HL007024NIDDK NIH HHS K24 DK106414NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK089174
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsTo develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers.

methodsWe included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visit 2; 1990-1992). Models included self-reported variables (Model 1), clinical measurements (Model 2), and glycated haemoglobin (Model 3). Model 4 tested the addition of 12 blood-based biomarkers. We compared models using prediction and discrimination statistics.

resultsSuccessive stages of model development improved risk prediction. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.667 (0.64, 0.70), 0.683 (0.65, 0.71), and 0.694 (0.66, 0.72), respectively (p < 0.05 for differences). The addition of three traditional and non-traditional biomarkers [β-2 microglobulin, creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and cystatin C-based eGFR] to Model 3 significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic = 0.716; p = 0.003) and accuracy of 10-year risk prediction for major complications in people with diabetes (midpoint percentiles of lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk changed from 18-68% to 12-87%).

conclusionsThese biomarkers, particularly those of kidney filtration, may help distinguish between people at low versus high risk of long-term major complications.

Indexed as

AgedAlanine TransaminaseAspartate Aminotransferasesbeta 2-MicroglobulinBiomarkersCohort StudiesCoronary DiseaseC-Reactive ProteinCreatinineCystatin CDiabetes ComplicationsDiabetes MellitusDiabetic AngiopathiesDiabetic NephropathiesFemaleFructosamineAlanine TransaminaseAspartate Aminotransferasesbeta 2-MicroglobulinBiomarkersC-Reactive ProteinCreatinineCystatin CFructosaminegamma-GlutamyltransferaseGlycated HemoglobinGlycated Serum AlbuminGlycation End Products, Advancedhemoglobin A1c protein, humanNatriuretic Peptide, BrainPeptide Fragmentspro-brain natriuretic peptide (1-76)Serum AlbuminTroponin Tcardiovascular diseasediabetes complicationspopulation studytype 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID27161077
PMCPMC4993670

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.