ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2016
The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review.Physics of life reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Dengue and Flavivirus Co-Infections: Challenges in Diagnosis, Treatment, and Disease Management.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Review
- Prevalence and characteristics of dengue virus co-infection in patients and mosquitoes collected from patients' houses.PloS one · 2025Article
- Influence of climate and heatwaves on dengue transmission in Sao Paulo and Natal, Brazil.PloS one · 2025Article
- Data-driven computational intelligence applied to dengue outbreak forecasting: a case study at the scale of the city of Natal, RN-Brazil.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Pandemic-associated mobility restrictions could cause increases in dengue virus transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Linking mosquito surveillance to dengue fever through Bayesian mechanistic modeling.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Article
- Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- Contributions from the silent majority dominate dengue virus transmission.PLoS pathogens · 2018Article
- Seroprevalence of Dengue Antibodies in Three Urban Settings in Yucatan, Mexico.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2018Article
- Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Dengue Fever Outbreak Predictions in the Northwest Coast of Yucatan, Mexico and San Juan, Puerto Rico.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2018Article
- Article
- Risk stratification in compartmental epidemic models: Where to draw the line?Journal of theoretical biology · 2017Article
- Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
- Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality.PloS one · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The epidemiology of dengue fever is characterized by highly seasonal, multi-annual fluctuations, and the irregular circulation of its four serotypes. It is believed that this behaviour arises from the interplay between environmental drivers and serotype interactions. The exact mechanism, however, is uncertain. Constraining mathematical models to patterns characteristic to dengue epidemiology offers a means for detecting such mechanisms. Here, we used a pattern-oriented modelling (POM) strategy to fit and assess a range of dengue models, driven by combinations of temporary cross protective-immunity, cross-enhancement, and seasonal forcing, on their ability to capture the main characteristics of dengue dynamics. We show that all proposed models reproduce the observed dengue patterns across some part of the parameter space. Which model best supports the dengue dynamics is determined by the level of seasonal forcing. Further, when tertiary and quaternary infections are allowed, the inclusion of temporary cross-immunity alone is strongly supported, but the addition of cross-enhancement markedly reduces the parameter range at which dengue dynamics are produced, irrespective of the strength of seasonal forcing. The implication of these structural uncertainties on predicted vulnerability to control is also discussed. With ever expanding spread of dengue, greater understanding of dengue dynamics and control efforts (e.g. a near-future vaccine introduction) has become critically important. This study highlights the capacity of multi-level pattern-matching modelling approaches to offer an analytic tool for deeper insights into dengue epidemiology and control.
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