Predictors of asthma following severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis in early childhood.

backgroundWe sought to identify predictors of asthma development following severe early childhood RSV bronchiolitis. Different definitions of asthma were also compared.

methodsThis longitudinal, observational study (N = 343) followed patients (<2 years old) from a placebo-controlled trial (N = 979) of montelukast after RSV bronchiolitis to identify clinical, demographic, or biochemical predictors of asthma, atopic disorders, and chronic asthma therapy use at 6 years of age (Clinical Trials Registry Number: NCT01140048). Asthma (primary definition) was based on parental identification of wheeze at 6 AND 12 months before 6 years of age; definitions based on physician diagnosis as well as parental identification of wheeze at 6 OR 12 months (to consider seasonal effect) were also assessed. Post-hoc analyses evaluated agreement among asthma diagnosis criteria.

resultsPrevalence of asthma (primary definition by parental identification), asthma (physician diagnosis), atopic disorders, and chronic asthma therapy use (parental identification) was 6.1%, 22.4%, 36.2%, and 14.5%, respectively. Predictors for asthma (primary definition) included male gender, a relative with asthma, and RAST positive for dog dander; for physician diagnosis of asthma, high severity score for RSV bronchiolitis, high respiratory rate, and asthma diagnosis before enrollment. Predictors of atopic disorders included allergic rhinitis before enrollment, a relative with asthma, and the plasma biomarkers IL-5, IL-16, and IL-18. Predictors of chronic asthma therapy use included asthma diagnosis before enrollment and geographic region (Europe and Africa). Only 42% of patients with asthma (primary definition) also met the asthma definition by physician diagnosis and chronic asthma therapy use.

conclusionAmong children with early RSV bronchiolitis, hereditary factors (i.e., having a relative with asthma) and RSV bronchiolitis severity were predictors of asthma and atopic disorders at 6 years of age. Of interest, there was poor agreement among the asthma definitions evaluated. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2016;51:1382-1392. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.