Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research.

Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5-15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the "Sea Star associated Densovirus" (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed coast-wide investigation of the effects of this outbreak.