Surrogate Markers: Lessons from the Next Gen?

The article by Banerjee and colleagues published in this issue of the journal involving a randomized control prevention trial of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in Barrett esophagus reported a null outcome despite being well designed and executed. Possible reasons for this null outcome are discussed focusing on use of surrogate endpoints in the trial. The trial is especially topical because it comes at a time when there are calls for a Pre-Cancer Genome Atlas (PCGA) for "understanding the earliest molecular and cellular events associated with cancer initiation…" This commentary discusses current concepts in prevention research including branched evolution that leads to therapeutic resistance. Length bias sampling postulates underdiagnosis is due to rapidly progressing disease that is difficult to detect by screening because it progresses to cancer too rapidly and that overdiagnosis is the result of very slowly or nonprogressing disease that is easy to detect by screening because it persists for a lifetime and the patient dies of unrelated causes. Finally, it also explores study designs, including surrogate endpoints in Barrett esophagus trials, and opportunities and pitfalls for a PCGA in the context of high levels of over and underdiagnosis of Barrett esophagus as well as many other cancers and their precursors. Cancer Prev Res; 9(7); 512-7. ©2016 AACRSee related article by Banerjee, et al., p. 528.