Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27130162›Full record

SynthesisBMJ open2016

Prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Antoine Elias, Susan Mallett, Marie Daoud-Elias, Jean-Noël Poggi, Mike Clarke

Registry-linked trialAbstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMJ open, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05613855 (Performance of Pulmonary Embolism Risk Scores for Assessment of Outcome in Computed Tomographic Pulmonary Angiography Confirmed Patients), which is not on this map. Cited by 84 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
84citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05613855 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2022, after this paper: background citation

Performance of Pulmonary Embolism Risk Scores for Assessment of Outcome in Computed Tomographic Pulmonary Angiography Confirmed Patients

TypeobservationalSponsorAssiut UniversityRan2022 to 2024Enrolled60ConditionsPulmonary Embolism
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

84 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Predictive scores for the diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism in COVID-19: A systematic review.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Article
  7. Trends and Therapeutic Imperatives in Pulmonary Embolism Therapy.Journal of the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography & Interventions · 2026
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Evaluating the Predictive Value of the Endothelial Activation and Stress Index in Determining the Severity and Prognosis of Acute Pulmonary Embolism.Medical principles and practice : international journal of the Kuwait University, Health Science Centre · 2026
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Comparison of half-dose alteplase and LMWH in intermediate-high risk pulmonary embolism: a single-center observational study.The Egyptian heart journal : (EHJ) : official bulletin of the Egyptian Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Limitations and Future Perspectives on Pulmonary Embolism: So Far, So Good.Interventional cardiology (London, England) · 2025
    Article

24 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Antoine EliasDepartment of Vascular Medicine, Sainte Musse Hospital, Toulon La Seyne Hospital Centre, Toulon, France DPhil Programme in Evidence-Based Healthcare, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Susan MallettDepartment of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Marie Daoud-EliasDepartment of Vascular Medicine, Sainte Musse Hospital, Toulon La Seyne Hospital Centre, Toulon, France.
Jean-Noël PoggiDepartment of Vascular Medicine, Sainte Musse Hospital, Toulon La Seyne Hospital Centre, Toulon, France.
Mike ClarkeNorthern Ireland Network for Trials Methodology Research, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo review the evidence for existing prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and determine how valid and useful they are for predicting patient outcomes.

designSystematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library from inception to July 2014, and sources of grey literature. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies aiming at constructing, validating, updating or studying the impact of prognostic models to predict all-cause death, PE-related death or venous thromboembolic events up to a 3-month follow-up in patients with an acute symptomatic PE. DATA EXTRACTION: Study characteristics and study quality using prognostic criteria. Studies were selected and data extracted by 2 reviewers. DATA ANALYSIS: Summary estimates (95% CI) for proportion of risk groups and event rates within risk groups, and accuracy.

resultsWe included 71 studies (44,298 patients). Among them, 17 were model construction studies specific to PE prognosis. The most validated models were the PE Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.3% (1.7% to 2.9%) in the low-risk group and 11.4% (9.9% to 13.1%) in the high-risk group for PESI (9 studies), and 1.5% (0.9% to 2.5%) in the low-risk group and 10.7% (8.8% to12.9%) in the high-risk group for sPESI (11 studies). PESI has proved clinically useful in an impact study. Shifting the cut-off or using novel and updated models specifically developed for normotensive PE improves the ability for identifying patients at lower risk for early death or adverse outcome (0.5-1%) and those at higher risk (up to 20-29% of event rate).

conclusionsWe provide evidence-based information about the validity and utility of the existing prognostic models in acute PE that may be helpful for identifying patients at low risk. Novel models seem attractive for the high-risk normotensive PE but need to be externally validated then be assessed in impact studies.

Indexed as

Health Status IndicatorsAcute DiseaseHumansModels, TheoreticalPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisPulmonary EmbolismRisk AssessmentSeverity of Illness IndexVenous Thromboembolismprediction rulesprognostic modelspulmonary embolismrisk stratificationsystematic review

Identifiers

PMID27130162
PMCPMC4854007

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.