ArticleBMC infectious diseases2016
The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Data-driven methods for dengue prediction and surveillance using real-world and Big Data: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Pooled it
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- Disentangling associations between vegetation greenness and dengue in a Latin American city: Findings and challenges.Landscape and urban planning · 2021Article
- Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models.Journal of clinical epidemiology · 2021Review
- Public health emergencies of international concern: a historic overview.Journal of travel medicine · 2020Review
- A Prospective Study on the Impact and Out-of-Pocket Costs of Dengue Illness in International Travelers.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2019Article
- Mass gatherings medicine: public health issues arising from mass gathering religious and sporting events.Lancet (London, England) · 2019Review
- The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Article
- Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Article
- Estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases from under-reported age-dependent compulsorily notification databases.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Article
- Estimating the size ofInfectious Disease Modelling · 2017Article
- On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
- Zika Virus Infection, Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio 2016, and Sports Performance.Journal of human kinetics · 2016Article
- A comparative analysis of three different methods for the estimation of the basic reproduction number of dengue.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2016Article
- Zika is not a reason for missing the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro: response to the open letter of Dr Attaran and colleagues to Dr Margaret Chan, Director - General, WHO, on the Zika threat to the Olympic and Paralympic Games.Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.
methodsA mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics.
resultsThe individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007.
conclusionsIf dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.
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