Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27125917›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2016

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Critical Community Size and Spatial Vaccination Strategies.

Thomas P Van Boeckel, Saki Takahashi, Qiaohong Liao, Weijia Xing, Shengjie Lai, Victor Hsiao, Fengfeng Liu, Yaming Zheng, Zhaorui Chang, Chen Yuan and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  10. Measles and the canonical path to elimination.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2019
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Thomas P Van BoeckelDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Saki TakahashiDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Qiaohong LiaoDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Weijia XingDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Shengjie LaiDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Victor HsiaoDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Fengfeng LiuDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Yaming ZhengDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Zhaorui ChangDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Chen YuanDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
C Jessica E MetcalfDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Hongjie YuDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Bryan T GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Funding

Scientific and Technical Computing CoreP2CHD047879 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI SALGANIK, MATTHEW J. · 2014 to 2018
$2.0M
NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD047879
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Hand Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) constitutes a considerable burden for health care systems across China. Yet this burden displays important geographic heterogeneity that directly affects the local persistence and the dynamics of the disease, and thus the ability to control it through vaccination campaigns. Here, we use detailed geographic surveillance data and epidemic models to estimate the critical community size (CCS) of HFMD associated enterovirus serotypes CV-A16 and EV-A71 and we explore what spatial vaccination strategies may best reduce the burden of HFMD. We found CCS ranging from 336,979 (±225,866) to 722,372 (±150,562) with the lowest estimates associated with EV-A71 in the southern region of China where multiple transmission seasons have previously been identified. Our results suggest the existence of a regional immigration-recolonization dynamic driven by urban centers. If EV-A71 vaccines doses are limited, these would be optimally deployed in highly populated urban centers and in high-prevalence areas. If HFMD vaccines are included in China's National Immunization Program in order to achieve high coverage rates (>85%), routine vaccination of newborns largely outperforms strategies in which the equivalent number of doses is equally divided between routine vaccination of newborns and pulse vaccination of the community at large.

Indexed as

Topography, MedicalChinaDisease Transmission, InfectiousEpidemiological MonitoringHand, Foot and Mouth DiseaseHumansModels, StatisticalSpatial AnalysisVaccination

Identifiers

PMID27125917
PMCPMC4850478

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.