Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27110713›Full record

ArticlePloS one2016

Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Changes among Nation States.

Luke J Matthews, Sam Passmore, Paul M Richard, Russell D Gray, Quentin D Atkinson

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
69.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 42 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Assessing different historical pathways in the cultural evolution of economic development.Evolution and human behavior : official journal of the Human Behavior and Evolution Society · 2022
    Article
  5. Article
  6. The uses and abuses of tree thinking in cultural evolution.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021
    Review
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Cultural macroevolution matters.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2017
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.

Luke J MatthewsRAND Corporation, 20 Park Plaza, Suite 920, Boston, MA, 02116, United States of America.
Sam PassmoreSchool of Psychology, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
Paul M RichardActivate Networks, Inc., 1 Newton Executive Park, Suite 100, Newton, MA, 02462, United States of America.
Russell D GraySchool of Psychology, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
Quentin D AtkinsonSchool of Psychology, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand.
University of Auckland · NZMax Planck Institute for the Science of Human History · DERAND Corporation · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Political and economic risks arise from social phenomena that spread within and across countries. Regime changes, protest movements, and stock market and default shocks can have ramifications across the globe. Quantitative models have made great strides at predicting these events in recent decades but incorporate few explicitly measured cultural variables. However, in recent years cultural evolutionary theory has emerged as a major paradigm to understand the inheritance and diffusion of human cultural variation. Here, we combine these two strands of research by proposing that measures of socio-linguistic affiliation derived from language phylogenies track variation in cultural norms that influence how political and economic changes diffuse across the globe. First, we show that changes over time in a country's democratic or autocratic character correlate with simultaneous changes among their socio-linguistic affiliations more than with changes of spatially proximate countries. Second, we find that models of changes in sovereign default status favor including socio-linguistic affiliations in addition to spatial data. These findings suggest that better measurement of cultural networks could be profoundly useful to policy makers who wish to diversify commercial, social, and other forms of investment across political and economic risks on an international scale.

Indexed as

Cultural EvolutionEconomicsPoliticsHumansPhylogeny

Identifiers

PMID27110713
PMCPMC4844133
OpenAlexW2343171663

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.