ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2016
Inferring the Spatio-temporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission from Surveillance Data in Guangzhou, China.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue fever in China.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Population genomics of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli uncovers high connectivity between urban and rural communities in Ecuador.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Bridging landscape ecology and urban science to respond to the rising threat of mosquito-borne diseases.Nature ecology & evolution · 2022Review
- Collaboration between meteorology and public health: Predicting the dengue epidemic in Guangzhou, China, by meteorological parameters.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Article
- Impact of environmental factors on the spread of dengue fever in Sri Lanka.International journal of environmental science and technology : IJEST · 2022Article
- Dengue Early Warning System as Outbreak Prediction Tool: A Systematic Review.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2022Review
- Disentangling associations between vegetation greenness and dengue in a Latin American city: Findings and challenges.Landscape and urban planning · 2021Article
- Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Incorporating human mobility data improves forecasts of Dengue fever in Thailand.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Enhancing fine-grained intra-urban dengue forecasting by integrating spatial interactions of human movements between urban regions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Inference and prediction of malaria transmission dynamics using time series data.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- Determination of Factors Affecting Dengue Occurrence in Representative Areas of China: A Principal Component Regression Analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
- Coupling the circadian rhythms of population movement and the immune system in infectious disease modeling.PloS one · 2020Article
- A dynamic neural network model for predicting risk of Zika in real time.BMC medicine · 2019Article
- Spatiotemporal analysis of the dengue outbreak in Guangdong Province, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Urban villages as transfer stations for dengue fever epidemic: A case study in the Guangzhou, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Inter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China.Nature communications · 2019Article
- A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- Neighbourhood level real-time forecasting of dengue cases in tropical urban Singapore.BMC medicine · 2018Article
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4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDengue is a serious vector-borne disease, and incidence rates have significantly increased during the past few years, particularly in 2014 in Guangzhou. The current situation is more complicated, due to various factors such as climate warming, urbanization, population increase, and human mobility. The purpose of this study is to detect dengue transmission patterns and identify the disease dispersion dynamics in Guangzhou, China. METHODOLOGY: We conducted surveys in 12 districts of Guangzhou, and collected daily data of Breteau index (BI) and reported cases between September and November 2014 from the public health authority reports. Based on the available data and the Ross-Macdonald theory, we propose a dengue transmission model that systematically integrates entomologic, demographic, and environmental information. In this model, we use (1) BI data and geographic variables to evaluate the spatial heterogeneities of Aedes mosquitoes, (2) a radiation model to simulate the daily mobility of humans, and (3) a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to estimate the model parameters. RESULTS/
conclusionsBy implementing our proposed model, we can (1) estimate the incidence rates of dengue, and trace the infection time and locations, (2) assess risk factors and evaluate the infection threat in a city, and (3) evaluate the primary diffusion process in different districts. From the results, we can see that dengue infections exhibited a spatial and temporal variation during 2014 in Guangzhou. We find that urbanization, vector activities, and human behavior play significant roles in shaping the dengue outbreak and the patterns of its spread. This study offers useful information on dengue dynamics, which can help policy makers improve control and prevention measures.
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