ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2016
Predicting the spread of marine species introduced by global shipping.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed.
- Protocol for integrating vessel networks and environmental matching to inform cost-effective archipelago biosecurity planning and management.STAR protocols · 2026Article
- Marine population-genetic inferences reveal stronger oceanic structure in protists than Archaeplastida (plants) and Metazoa (animals).Science advances · 2026Article
- Unveiling individual and collective temporal patterns in the tanker shipping network.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Biological invasions: a global assessment of geographic distributions, long-term trends, and data gaps.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025Review
- Using Behaviour Change Frameworks and Bayesian Network Modelling to Support Marine Biosecurity Practices: A New South Wales Waterways Case Study.Environmental management · 2025Article
- Genomic Insights Into Early-Stage Selective Filtering During the Transport Stage of Biological Invasions.Evolutionary applications · 2025Article
- Engagement by New South Wales Marine Estate Users with and Evaluation of Communication Approaches to Strengthen Biosecurity Practices.Environmental management · 2025Article
- Harmful Algae Forecasting through an Ocean Data Justice Lens.Environmental science & technology · 2025Review
- Climatological Atlas of Temperature and Salinity for the Northeast Asian Seas.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Introduction risk of fire ants through container cargo in ports: Data integration approach considering a logistic network.PloS one · 2025Article
- Non-native species in marine protected areas: Global distribution patterns.Environmental science and ecotechnology · 2024Article
- Quantifying the probability of a successful marine bioinvasion due to source-destination risk factors.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Genome-wide transcriptome analysis reveals the diversity and function of long non-coding RNAs in dinoflagellates.NAR genomics and bioinformatics · 2024Article
- Multi-omics analysis reveals the molecular response to heat stress in a "red tide" dinoflagellate.Genome biology · 2023Article
- First description study on molecular characterization of Hemiclepsis khankiana (Hirudinea: Glossiphoniidae) in China.BMC veterinary research · 2023Article
- A temporal assessment of risk of non-indigenous species introduction by ballast water to Canadian coastal waters based on environmental similarity.Biological invasions · 2023Article
- The microbiome of the dinoflagellateFrontiers in microbiology · 2022Article
- Tracking the global reduction of marine traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Metabarcoding quantifies differences in accumulation of ballast water borne biodiversity among three port systems in the United States.The Science of the total environment · 2020Article
- Trends in the detection of aquatic non-indigenous species across global marine, estuarine and freshwater ecosystems: A 50-year perspective.Diversity & distributions · 2020Article
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4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The human-mediated translocation of species poses a distinct threat to nature, human health, and economy. Although existing models calculate the invasion probability of any species, frameworks for species-specific forecasts are still missing. Here, we developed a model approach using global ship movements and environmental conditions to simulate the successive global spread of marine alien species that allows predicting the identity of those species likely to arrive next in a given habitat. In a first step, we simulated the historical stepping-stone spreading dynamics of 40 marine alien species and compared predicted and observed alien species ranges. With an accuracy of 77%, the model correctly predicted the presence/absence of an alien species in an ecoregion. Spreading dynamics followed a common pattern with an initial invasion of most suitable habitats worldwide and a subsequent spread into neighboring habitats. In a second step, we used the reported distribution of 97 marine algal species with a known invasion history, and six species causing harmful algal blooms, to determine the ecoregions most likely to be invaded next under climate warming. Cluster analysis revealed that species can be classified according to three characteristic spreading profiles: emerging species, high-risk species, and widespread species. For the North Sea, the model predictions could be confirmed because two of the predicted high-risk species have recently invaded the North Sea. This study highlights that even simple models considering only shipping intensities and habitat matches are able to correctly predict the identity of the next invading marine species.
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