Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27076862›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of statistics in medical research

Individualized Absolute Risk Calculations for Persons with Multiple Chronic Conditions: Embracing Heterogeneity, Causality, and Competing Events.

Heather Allore, Gail McAvay, Carlos A Vaz Fragoso, Terrence E Murphy

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of statistics in medical research. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Heather AlloreDepartment of Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA; Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Gail McAvayDepartment of Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Carlos A Vaz FragosoDepartment of Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA; Veterans Affairs Clinical Epidemiology Research Center, West Haven, CT, USA.
Terrence E MurphyDepartment of Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.

Funding

Yale Study Support Suite (YES3): Dashboard and Web Portal Software Supporting Research Workflow through integrated, customizable REDCap External ModulesP30AG021342 · NIA · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Albert C Shaw · 2002 to 2026
$37.9M
Individualized Absolute Risk calculator For Persons With Multiple Chronic ConditionsR01AG047891 · NIA · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI ALLORE, HEATHER GWYNN · 2015 to 2017
$990k
Health Outcome Effects of Common Medications in Elders with Multiple ConditionsR21AG045148 · NIA · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI ALLORE, HEATHER GWYNN, TINETTI, MARY E · 2013 to 2014
$458k
NIA NIH HHS P30 AG021342NIA NIH HHS R01 AG047891NIA NIH HHS R21 AG045148
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Approximately 75% of adults over the age of 65 years are affected by two or more chronic medical conditions. We provide a conceptual justification for individualized absolute risk calculators for competing patient-centered outcomes (PCO) (i.e. outcomes deemed important by patients) and patient reported outcomes (PRO) (i.e. outcomes patients report instead of physiologic test results). The absolute risk of an outcome is the probability that a person receiving a given treatment will experience that outcome within a pre-defined interval of time, during which they are simultaneously at risk for other competing outcomes. This allows for determination of the likelihood of a given outcome with and without a treatment. We posit that there are heterogeneity of treatment effects among patients with multiple chronic conditions (MCC) largely depends on those coexisting conditions. We outline the development of an individualized absolute risk calculator for competing outcomes using propensity score methods that strengthen causal inference for specific treatments. Innovations include the key concept that any given outcome may or may not concur with any other outcome and that these competing outcomes do not necessarily preclude other outcomes. Patient characteristics and MCC will be the primary explanatory factors used in estimating the heterogeneity of treatment effects on PCO and PRO. This innovative method may have wide-spread application for determining individualized absolute risk calculations for competing outcomes. Knowing the probabilities of outcomes in absolute terms may help the burgeoning population of patients with MCC who face complex treatment decisions.

Indexed as

absolute riskcompeting outcomesdecision toolsheterogeneitylongitudinal studyMultiple chronic diseasepropensity scores

Identifiers

PMID27076862
PMCPMC4827855

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.