SynthesisBMC medicine2016
Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium.
Synthesis in BMC medicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 80 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
80 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 156 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dose-response association between cigarette smoking and gastric cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Gastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association · 2024Pooled it
- Family Socioeconomic Position and Lung Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis and a Mendelian Randomization Study.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Behavioural interventions for smoking cessation: an overview and network meta-analysis.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- Cancer risk in heart or lung transplant recipients: A comprehensive analysis of 21 prospective cohorts.Cancer medicine · 2020Pooled it
- Cancer Risks in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: Results from a Comprehensive Analysis of 72 Cohort Studies.Oncoimmunology · 2020Pooled it
- Prostate Cancer and Asbestos: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.The Permanente journal · 2020Pooled it
- Telephone counselling for smoking cessation.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2019Pooled it
- Effect of tobacco smoking on the risk of developing community acquired pneumonia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2019Pooled it
- Impact of prediagnostic smoking and smoking cessation on colorectal cancer prognosis: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from cohorts within the CHANCES consortium.Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology · 2018Pooled it
- Nicotine-containing products and the cardiovascular system: mechanisms and global health implications.Nature reviews. Cardiology · 2026Review
- Disproportionate Risk of Cancer Following Diagnosis of Peripheral Artery Disease.JACC. Advances · 2026Article
- Development of small cell lung cancer following gunshot wound to the chest.BMJ case reports · 2025Article
- Integrated, Cross-Entity Information on Preventive Measures for Bowel, Breast, and Prostate Cancer: Evaluation Study of the Web Application "Prevent-Take-Up".JMIR cancer · 2025Article
- Lifestyle changes and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2025Article
- Smoking and the risk of prostate cancer: a review of risk and disease progression.Genes and environment : the official journal of the Japanese Environmental Mutagen Society · 2025Review
- Impact of smoking and opium cessation on gastrointestinal cancer risk: A 15-year longitudinal study in Golestan Cohort.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Comorbidity of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: correlation and optimization of treatment strategies.Translational lung cancer research · 2025Review
- A Perspective on Lung Cancer and Lung Microbiome: Insight on Immunity.Immunity, inflammation and disease · 2025Review
- Prognostic stratification through smoking status and cumulative smoking dose in advanced non-small cell lung cancer immunotherapy: a dose-dependent real-world analysis.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- The global burden of smoking-related prostate cancer from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2031.Tobacco induced diseases · 2025Article
20 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
36 authors at 20 institutions in 15 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSmoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality.
methodsThis is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs.
resultsOverall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking.
conclusionsThis investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.