ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2016
Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socioeconomic changes in China.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat.La Medicina del lavoro · 2018Pooled it
- Evaluating the relationship between heat waves and urban heat islands in tropical cities: a case study of Kuala Lumpur and George Town.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Occupational carbon footprints and exposure to climate transition risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Evaluating long-term and high spatiotemporal resolution of wet-bulb globe temperature through land-use based machine learning model.Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology · 2024Article
- Anthropogenic forcing has increased the risk of longer-traveling and slower-moving large contiguous heatwaves.Science advances · 2024Article
- China's public health initiatives for climate change adaptation.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Review
- Occupational heat stress, heat-related effects and the related social and economic loss: a scoping literature review.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Occupational heat strain in outdoor workers: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis.Temperature (Austin, Tex.) · 2022Review
- Perceptions of workplace heat exposure and adaption behaviors among Chinese construction workers in the context of climate change.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Adapting to Changing Labor Productivity as a Result of Intensified Heat Stress in a Changing Climate.GeoHealth · 2021Article
- The changing climate-migration relationship in China, 1989-2011.Climatic change · 2020Article
- Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2020Article
- Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Heat and Adult Health in China.Population and environment · 2018Article
- Evaluation of the Impact of Ambient Temperatures on Occupational Injuries in Spain.Environmental health perspectives · 2018Article
- Climate change, food, water and population health in China.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Global climate change will increase the frequency of hot temperatures, impairing health and productivity for millions of working people and raising labor costs. In mainland China, high-temperature subsidies (HTSs) are allocated to employees for each working day in extremely hot environments, but the potential heat-related increase in labor cost has not been evaluated so far. Here, we estimate the potential HTS cost in current and future climates under different scenarios of socioeconomic development and radiative forcing (Representative Concentration Pathway), taking uncertainties from the climate model structure and bias correction into account. On average, the total HTS in China is estimated at 38.6 billion yuan/y (US $6.22 billion/y) over the 1979-2005 period, which is equivalent to 0.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Assuming that the HTS standards (per employee per hot day) remain unchanged throughout the 21st century, the total HTS may reach 250 billion yuan/y in the 2030s and 1,000 billion yuan/y in 2100. We further show that, without specific adaptation, the increased HTS cost is mainly determined by population growth until the 2030s and climate change after the mid-21st century because of increasingly frequent hot weather. Accounting for the likely possibility that HTS standards follow the wages, the share of GDP devoted to HTS could become as high as 3% at the end of 21st century.
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