ArticleEnvironmental science and pollution research international2016
A comprehensive assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios for the Dongting Lake basin in south-central China in 2030.
Article in Environmental science and pollution research international, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Cultivated Land Multifunction and Its Trade-Off/Synergy Relationship in the Two Lake Plains.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Discussing the regional-scale arable land use intensity and environmental risk triggered by the micro-scale rural households' differentiation based on step-by-step evaluation-a case study of Shandong Province, China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2020Article
- The sustainable arable land use pattern under the tradeoff of agricultural production, economic development, and ecological protection-an analysis of Dongting Lake basin, China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
To explore the future of the material demand, pollutant emission, production, and arable land area surrounding the Dongting Lake basin, and to find a potential solution for agricultural development, this study assumes the following four agriculture intensification scenarios: the natural development scenario (ND), the production development scenario (PD), the moderate intensification scenario (MI), and the local resilience scenario (LR). The scenarios focus on different developmental patterns (natural development, short-term production growth, long-term sustainability, or self-sufficiency).The result shows to satisfy the food demand in 2030, and the production of crop and meat will be 26.96, 30.25, 28.05, and 16.27 × 10(6) t in ND, PD, MI, and LR, respectively; more than 1.78 × 10(6) ha of arable land is needed. Compared with the year 2012, the material input and pollutant output will increase by a maximum of 18.32 and 122.31 %, respectively. By classifying the environmental risk into four categories-greenhouse gas emission, air pollution, eutrophication, and ecotoxicity-the composite environmental risk index (CER) is calculated. The CER in PD was the highest, followed by that in ND, LR, and MI. Due to the production allocation within the 35 cities and counties, the spatial distribution of CER is more homogenous in PD and MI than in ND. The analysis of the scenarios reveals that through technological improvement and spatial allocation of agricultural production, scenario MI could be a potential direction for the government to design a sustainable agricultural-environmental system.
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