ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2016
Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
- Understanding the Impact of Rainfall on Diarrhea: Testing the Concentration-Dilution Hypothesis Using a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Environmental health perspectives · 2020Pooled it
- Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.The Science of the total environment · 2020Pooled it
- Modeling environmentally mediated rotavirus transmission: The role of temperature and hydrologic factors.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2018Pooled it
- WASH interventions and child diarrhea at the interface of climate and socioeconomic position in Bangladesh.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Waterborne diseases and climate change.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Urban contact patterns shape respiratory syncytial virus epidemics with implications for vaccination.Science advances · 2025Article
- Epidemiological dynamics and early warning of norovirus and rotavirus A in Yantai City in 2023-2024 based on wastewater surveillance.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Article
- Mechanisms for the circulation of influenza A(H3N2) in China: A spatiotemporal modelling study.PLoS pathogens · 2022Article
- The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Tuscany (Italy): A SI2R2D compartmental model with uncertainty evaluation.PloS one · 2021Article
- Uncovering ecological state dynamics with hidden Markov models.Ecology letters · 2020Review
- The Impact of Climate Change on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Insights From Current Research and New Directions.Current environmental health reports · 2020Review
- Model selection and parameter estimation for dynamic epidemic models via iterated filtering: application to rotavirus in Germany.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2020Article
- Tube Well Use as Protection Against Rotavirus Infection During the Monsoons in an Urban Setting.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
- The seasonality of diarrheal pathogens: A retrospective study of seven sites over three years.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Rotavirus-associated acute diarrhea outbreak in West Shewa Zone of Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia, 2017.The Pan African medical journal · 2019Article
- The calendar of epidemics: Seasonal cycles of infectious diseases.PLoS pathogens · 2018Article
- Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2018Article
- Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens.Current environmental health reports · 2018Review
- Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.Current environmental health reports · 2018Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The role of climate forcing in the population dynamics of infectious diseases has typically been revealed via retrospective analyses of incidence records aggregated across space and, in particular, over whole cities. Here, we focus on the transmission dynamics of rotavirus, the main diarrheal disease in infants and young children, within the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We identify two zones, the densely urbanized core and the more rural periphery, that respond differentially to flooding. Moreover, disease seasonality differs substantially between these regions, spanning variation comparable to the variation from tropical to temperate regions. By combining process-based models with an extensive disease surveillance record, we show that the response to climate forcing is mainly seasonal in the core, where a more endemic transmission resulting from an asymptomatic reservoir facilitates the response to the monsoons. The force of infection in this monsoon peak can be an order of magnitude larger than the force of infection in the more epidemic periphery, which exhibits little or no postmonsoon outbreak in a pattern typical of nearby rural areas. A typically smaller peak during the monsoon season nevertheless shows sensitivity to interannual variability in flooding. High human density in the core is one explanation for enhanced transmission during troughs and an associated seasonal monsoon response in this diarrheal disease, which unlike cholera, has not been widely viewed as climate-sensitive. Spatial demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity can create reservoirs of infection and enhance the sensitivity of disease systems to climate forcing, especially in the populated cities of the developing world.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.