Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27030414›Full record

ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2016

Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria.

Michael T White, George Shirreff, Stephan Karl, Azra C Ghani, Ivo Mueller

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 56 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
56citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

56 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Population heterogeneity in Plasmodium vivax relapse risk.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022
    Trial
  3. Trial
  4. Validation of serological markers of recent exposure toThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Frequent and genetically diverseResearch square · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Recurrent Malaria withTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Observational
  14. Article
  15. Heterogeneous mosquito exposure increasesProceedings. Biological sciences · 2024
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Michael T WhiteMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK m.white08@imperial.ac.uk.
George ShirreffMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.
Stephan KarlDivision of Population Health and Immunity, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3052, Australia Department of Medical Biology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia.
Azra C GhaniMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.
Ivo MuellerDivision of Population Health and Immunity, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3052, Australia Department of Medical Biology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia Centre de Recerca en Salut Internacional de Barcelona, 08036 Barcelona, Spain.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/K010174/1Medical Research Council MR/L012170/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

There is substantial variation in the relapse frequency of Plasmodium vivax malaria, with fast-relapsing strains in tropical areas, and slow-relapsing strains in temperate areas with seasonal transmission. We hypothesize that much of the phenotypic diversity in P. vivax relapses arises from selection of relapse frequency to optimize transmission potential in a given environment, in a process similar to the virulence trade-off hypothesis. We develop mathematical models of P. vivax transmission and calculate the basic reproduction number R0 to investigate how transmission potential varies with relapse frequency and seasonality. In tropical zones with year-round transmission, transmission potential is optimized at intermediate relapse frequencies of two to three months: slower-relapsing strains increase the opportunity for onward transmission to mosquitoes, but also increase the risk of being outcompeted by faster-relapsing strains. Seasonality is an important driver of relapse frequency for temperate strains, with the time to first relapse predicted to be six to nine months, coinciding with the duration between seasonal transmission peaks. We predict that there is a threshold degree of seasonality, below which fast-relapsing tropical strains are selected for, and above which slow-relapsing temperate strains dominate, providing an explanation for the observed global distribution of relapse phenotypes.

Indexed as

AnimalsBasic Reproduction NumberCulicidaeHumansMalaria, VivaxModels, TheoreticalPlasmodium vivaxRecurrenceSeasonsTropical Climatemathematical modelPlasmodium vivax malariarelapseseasonalitytransmission potential

Identifiers

PMID27030414
PMCPMC4822465

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.